Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

Unity_99
What I'm concerned about is the recent scientific articles about ebola and human dna sharing material.

If they come up with a vaccine, the result would be disasterous, for your own immune system would start attacking your body.

I suspect that's a problem with other vaccines too - we are supraorganisms and integrate DNA from numerous viruses into our own DNA. It has always seemed really stupid to me to try and "boost immunity" when we don't understand the healthy immune system never mind autoimmunity.



Note above post: Ebola suspected in Ghana

ketsuko

crazyewok

Unity_99

If they come up with a vaccine, the result would be disasterous, for your own immune system would start attacking your body.

Thats what clinical trials are for......to stop disastrous things from happening

Yes, but the problems start when they push something through without the usual round of clinical trials because there is a panic. This happened with the '70s Swine Flu scare and it happened again on a smaller scale recently. More people died or were injured from vaccines that were rushed into production because of a scare.

It's always difficult to balance the true risk v. the reward in those cases.

So true. That's why I always like to do my own risk-benefit analysis. And if TSHTF I'll quarantine myself, thank you.

reply to post by ketsuko

...As for how this is spreading ... is it that we're getting our first idea of how Ebola acts when not confined by poorly connected human communities or is there some other factor spreading it (a new pool of bats it hasn't been in before and a lot of people eating them)?

That's the $64,000 question. ...Ebola shouldn't be there, and it shouldn't be spreading like it is. Never has before anyway. Looks like the World Health Organization might have to rewrite a few policies. ...I quite like your suggestion that this might be exactly how Ebola acts when it's not confined by poorly connected human communities. If that's the case, and an animal reservoir has recently moved into these areas, we're probably in a good bit of trouble.


S&

reply to post by soficrow

Doctors Without Borders or Medicin Sans Frontiers (MSF) is an absolutely AMAZING agency - and MSF doctors are dedicated awesome people who quietly risk life and limb trying to save people in areas the WHO won't touch. Don't ever question their motives. [Yes, that's a threat.]

I am going to ignore that threat for now ... but I won't push the point till I get some credible proof that they may have been infiltrated by a bio-warfare outfit!

I agree that this is probably a natural outbreak, with unforeseen vectors, and that corporate forces will probably make moves to get a sample of the new strain, for weaponization purposes.

The greedy corporations may not have initiated or manufactured this outbreak but they will quickly mobilize to take advantage of it.

hisz.rsoe.hu...

The threat of 'spread' appears to continue.

Whether Ebola can be carried and a person be unaffected by it would be interesting to know.

reply to post by soficrow


Here some more data I have on the bat link:
Ebola Cousin' Marburg Virus Isolated From African Fruit Bats

Fruit bats as reservoirs of Ebola virus

Ebolavirus and other filoviruses

If you look at the maps I posted earlier you can see the bat species in question are quite wide spread over Africa especially in regions current and past that have had Ebola outbreaks.

Fact is the Virus could have been circulating for decades in the west coast and been a time bomb waiting to go off. As I said a few isolated cases of Ebola could quite easily have happened before but just never got picked up on and just got passed off as Lassa or yellow fever. It sucks but quite frankly no one is going to notice or care about a few dead Africans except there family who in those parts have no money and no voice. It not until whole community start dropping like fly's people start to notice and do tests.

A interesting thing I found is below which shows that the Virus could be more wide spread amongst fruit bats than we thought.

More wide spread than we thought?
Ebola Anti bodys found in Fruit bats in Bangladesh

reply to post by crazyewok


It's well-known that fruit bats carry Ebola - just unknown if they're the main reservoir, although the evidence is very strong, it's not conclusive. I posted earlier about the migrations of Asian fruit bats carrying RESTON (doesn't infect humans) in the Phillippines and China, and asked about the range and species of African fruit bats. Your Bangladesh link shows researchers found both Zaire Ebola (ZEBOV) and Reston Ebola (REBOV) in Bangladesh. Wow. S& ...Definitely more widespread than thought - and as you say, misdiagnosed infections just might explain how it was overlooked.

Did you see my post at the top of page 8? Maia Majumder's blog on "How #Ebola2014 Got to Guinea" is quite comprehensive regarding fruit bat species, and has maps. She speculates a situation much like you have been describing.

How #Ebola2014 Got to Guinea

......Because Guinea is considered a habitable environment for two of the three Ebola-carrying species, the infected migrant bats would likely have assimilated pretty quickly… And in their daily activities – namely, fighting and sexual contact – they would have been able to pass the virus on to the “local” members of their species, eventually meeting the 5% threshold deemed necessary for humans to contract the disease [5]. When paired with common cultural practices of consuming bats and bushmeat, it becomes clear why the population was particularly vulnerable to this brand of zoonosis [9]… And now that the virus has been introduced among local reservoir populations, it’s uncertain whether Guinea will ever truly be rid of it.

No outbreak is an island; it lives within an ecosystem that is much larger than the virus, the patients, and the communities affected. Managing #Ebola2014 and its aftermath will require significant capacity across multiple disciplines – not only from public health and medicine, but also from policy, zoology, and environmental science. The jury’s still out on exactly how Ebola got to Guinea, but deforestation and animal migration are compelling candidates that may be key to preventing further geographic expansion of this deadly disease.



—Maia Majumder, MPH

reply to post by Elliot


S& ...I reported yesterday on the girl being infected in Ghana but there wasn't much info. Here's what there is now:

* Blood tests run in Ghana show NO Ebola (results came in today).
* The girl came to Ghana from Mali, which reported 4 suspected cases - Mali sent their blood samples to the US and won't have results for a bit.

Just wondering - why did Mali have to send blood samples to the US but Ghana could test at home? Are Ghana's tests reliable? Are resources that different between nations in Africa? Why wouldn't Mali send to an African country with the facilities? ....I'm sure there are simple and logical answers to these questions, but would like to hear them.

soficrow

Just wondering - why did Mali have to send blood samples to the US but Ghana could test at home? Are Ghana's tests reliable? Are resources that different between nations in Africa? Why wouldn't Mali send to an African country with the facilities? ....I'm sure there are simple and logical answers to these questions, but would like to hear them.

Not sure on your background in immunology but will keep it simple just for the sake of other readers.

Basically they likely used a quick ELISA test. But in the field there can be reliability issues, especially if there are using donated cast off that may or may not meet certain QC standards. They can be pricey so likely the Hospital is using donated cast offs of variable quality. You can also get some reading errors if the staff not properly trained too.

Plus if the strain is not EBOV be it another strain or mutated version the field tests likely wont work.

Either way they will need to use more traditional lab tests to confirm and most hospitals in Africa just wont be equipped for that kind of work.

There is a Cat 4 lab in South Africa that could of taken the work. But I guess USA has the better facilities still. France is likely to be takeing some of the work load too. Plus the CDC and WHO in area normaly use the US sites so I guess that's a logistic thing.

reply to post by crazyewok


So just to clarify, does this mean that Ghana's tests may not be reliable?

Also, Senegal and Gambia both reported negative results on their tests of suspected cases. How reliable do you think those tests might be?



PS. Thanks for your great input and posts. S&

soficrow
So just to clarify, does this mean that Ghana's tests may not be reliable?

To sum it up in one word.
Yes

Its unlikely its wrong, but in the world of medicine unlikely is not good enough, I wouldn't trust the field results and any Microbiologist or Doctor in the field will want to get a 100% confirmation from a reliable source.

soficrow
Also, Senegal and Gambia both reported negative results on their tests of suspected cases. How reliable do you think those tests might be?

Im not 100% cued up on west African medical facilities, but from people who have visited the area and from data I have seen I would trust Senegal and Gambia as much as would Ghana and that's not very much.

link

Monrovia — The motorcyclist who drove the last victim of the deadly Ebola virus in Liberia is reported to be ailing and the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare wants the public help in finding him before he spread it on to others.

Health Minister Dr. Walter Gwenigale made the disclosure last Friday shortly after the World Health Organization (WHO) presented a consignment of protective gears to Liberia to aid health workers in the fight against the killer virus.

"The motorcycle driver who drove that sick woman to firestone and the woman has already died, that motorcycle driver is sick," the minister said.

"They called us last night, we sent people to go and find him but when we got there they said that the mother had taken him somewhere. Now we are looking for him because whoever gets in contact with that young man including the mother now, is in trouble. So you have to help us to get the word around that whoever has that young man somewhere, please turn him over to us so we can take care of him."

,The yet -to-be-identified deceased woman contracted the virus from Foyah Lofa County. The latest woman to die from the Ebola virus at Firestone contracted Ebola while caring for her sister who died of Ebola in Foya, Lofa County. The woman had been at Firestone under observation in isolation. Prior to that, she left the Foya area late night on March 29 and travelled via taxi to Monrovia to see her husband. Five other people were in the taxi with her, including the driver. The woman then took a motorcycle to a nearby clinic, where she was seen and released.

Additionally, authorities are said to be on the lookout for at least 40 persons who may or may not have crossed path with the deceased woman. Until her death, the woman and her family were being quarantined in their home until they could be moved to an appropriate facility. Although the Health Ministry has been monitoring those who came in contact with the woman, including the taxi driver, the failure of authorities to find the motorcyclist could hamper attempts by health authorities to stop the deadly virus in its tracks.

and WHO position is still

WHO does not recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied to Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone or Mali based on the current information available for this event.

Thankfully African nations are taking it on themselves to stop the spread.

Also even if it was the west they still wouldn't rely on just ELISA tests alone with a serious pathogen, they would try and confirm with other methods as well.

reply to post by crazyewok


Seems this "outbreak" may be an epidemic with more cases than we know, huh? ...Any idea how bad it might be, really?

Here's a potpourri of what I've collected lately.

….when it comes to medical ­conditions most of us don’t know our arsenic from our ebola, so we can’t assess these contrary claims.

….Because the real health ­advice we should be getting is whether to trust the health advice we’re getting.

LIES from allAfrica news - hypes up WHO and other international agencies' involvement like they didn't ignore the situation until MFS kicked up a real international stink demanding help:

The National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) said the risk of introduction of the Ebola virus into South Africa from the outbreak in Guinea is considered low. The institute also noted that the outbreak is confined at the moment to remote rural parts of Guinea and few people would travel to this area for work or tourism.

Ebola Virus Epidemic or Outbreak?

…..In Februrary of 2014, an outbreak of the Ebola virus began to spread around Guinea in West Africa. As of today, there have been an approximate total of 151 cases and 99 deaths from the disease in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Together the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), European Commission and Economic Community of West African States have done everything in their power to aid the affected areas.

Mariano Lugli, Doctors Without Borders project coordinator, has said, “We are facing an epidemic of a magnitude never before seen in terms of the distribution of cases in the country: Gueckedou, Macenta, Kissidougou, Nzerekore, and now Conakry.” Considering the fast and wide-bound spread of the Ebola virus in the three West African countries, things have reached a frightening level. However, is it actually an epidemic? Worse than that, could fears of an Ebola pandemic be warranted?

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the Ebola virus situation in West Africa should continue to be considered an outbreak at this time. Gregory Hartl, a spokesman for WHO, stated that there have been much bigger outbreaks of the virus. He went on to say, “What the outbreak is and what we are dealing with is, is limited foci and limited geographical area and only a few chains of transmission. For the moment, we speak of this as an outbreak.” As for concerns about pandemic or possible travel/trade restrictions, Hartl had this to add, “WHO does not recommend any travel or trade restrictions. They don’t make public health sense.”

Sick and Poor? Drug Researchers Aren't Interested

….You know this already, without any study to prove it: corporations that make, market, and sell drugs focus on higher-income markets. I can't even really say that's a failing of those corporations, who are after all corporations and exist to maximize profits (at the expense of ethics), personhood or no. It's a failing of governments, more accurately, for not funding medical research adequately or in the absence of that funding passing laws that force drug-makers to be equitable. That's not unreasonable—in a climate of aggressive patent expansion, drug companies will make lots of money either way.

…..the diseases that harm the human population the most across the entire globe are studied the least.

soficrow

Seems this "outbreak" may be an epidemic with more cases than we know, huh? ...Any idea how bad it might be, really?

Its hard to say.

They do seem to have lost control with this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the death toll doesn't end up pushing the 400+ mark like in 2000-2001 outbreak before they rain it in.

I don't think it will hit the 1000+ mark but I wouldn't put money on that.

I honestly wouldn't fret about it spreading in the west. Unless Ebola went Airborne it would just hit a brick wall. Interesting thing one of my professor told me was that the mutation that makes it airborne may be linked to the one that causes it to be asymptomatic like RESTON. It just a theory and not much evidence on that, but we can hope eh?

But it could prove to be a very very serious issue for Africa.

Worst thing that will likely happen is it infects a significant proportion of the human population in the area that it goes endemic like Lassa and becomes a permanent feature of the rural west African landscape. If that happens your looking at 1000's of African deaths a year. But with a 50-90% mortality rate it will be difficult to get to that point.

reply to post by crazyewok

...Unless Ebola went Airborne it would just hit a brick wall. Interesting thing one of my professor told me was that the mutation that makes it airborne may be linked to the one that causes it to be asymptomatic like RESTON. It just a theory and not much evidence on that, but we can hope eh?

Uh huh. ...I think there's good evidence showing other diseases losing severity when they gain infectivity. Maybe it has something to do with exchanging genes back and forth? So the more genes are shared between virus and host, the less severe the disease but more infective and finally asymptomatic? Til it gets assimilated and integrated into our genome.

reply to post by johnb

Thankfully African nations are taking it on themselves to stop the spread.

I don't think they can. Wonder what crazyewok thinks?

S& thanks.

reply to post by soficrow


Yeah I wouldn't be too thrilled.

A lot of these country's infrastructures extends about as far as there capital and major towns.

The small towns and villages will extremely difficult to reach and the medical facility's next to non existent.
Some of there places share needles and don't even have basic PPE.

Unless outside Aid organizations get involved and beefs up the defenses these African nations are in a lot of trouble.

soficrow
Just wondering - why did Mali have to send blood samples to the US but Ghana could test at home? Are Ghana's tests reliable? Are resources that different between nations in Africa? Why wouldn't Mali send to an African country with the facilities? ....I'm sure there are simple and logical answers to these questions, but would like to hear them.

It could be difference in resources and it could also be difference in what they prefer and trust or a combination of factors. Some places just plain trust the U.S. over their own labs. My husband sees this one on his own job. Some places will like the U.S. regulatory regime and standards, others like the EU, while others will use their own, and some like to come up with a weird mish-mash.

It may be that Mali did test the samples and went on their results in the interim, but also sent some back the U.S. and preferred to use the results of the U.S. tests and as the definitive ones for publicizing. So, they may have come up with results on Ebola (or whatever) and been treating it like Ebola, but they didn't say anything official until they got the U.S. results back to confirm.

It may also be that they just didn't feel they had the facilities or the personal they needed or they didn't trust them at all or they were too afraid and didn't want to risk working with it.

ketsuko


It could be difference in resources and it could also be difference in what they prefer and trust or a combination of factors. Some places just plain trust the U.S. over their own labs. My husband sees this one on his own job. Some places will like the U.S. regulatory regime and standards, others like the EU, while others will use their own, and some like to come up with a weird mish-mash.

Yeah I used to see that a lot too. EU and USA standards are pretty much trusted world wide. In in fact both my old labs in Britain operated under EU and US regulations, depending on the target market.


But yeah same as what I said a few posts back a lot of country's just don't have the facility's to do any sort of accurate testing or just don't trust what they can do.