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originally posted by: TruthxIsxInxThexMist
a reply to: soficrow
West Africa needs to be closed down.
Some European and Middle East countries have placed a quiet ‘ban’ on people arriving from sub-Saharan and West Africa, requesting an Ebola clearance certificate. According to documents seen by The Standard on Saturday, individuals from these countries travelling to Germany, Netherlands and Dubai were asked for an Ebola clearance certificate as a travel requirement.
The death toll has risen to more than 2,400 people out of 4,784 cases... the figures could be an underestimate.
….Michael Osterholm ...the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota .…raised a possibility that he said virologists are loath to discuss openly but consider behind closed doors: the prospect that the Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air.
….The key to containing the outbreak, Osterholm stressed, is to beef up efforts to stop the spread of the virus.
…."If we wait for vaccines and new drugs to arrive to end the Ebola epidemic, instead of taking major action now, we risk the disease's reaching from West Africa to our own backyards,"….
…."Ebola cannot be ignored in the hope it will burn itself out," Peter Piot, one of the scientists who first identified the Ebola virus in 1976, and his colleague Adam Kucharski, Piot, now director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said in their editorial.
Britain is edging closer to trialling a vaccine to fight the deadly Ebola virus, with the first human volunteer to be injected with the shot next week.
The British trial is part of a series of safety tests of potential vaccines aimed at preventing infection with the virus, which has already killed more than 2,400 people in West Africa.
The trial will ultimately involve 60 people, and will be led by Professor Adrian Hill from Oxford University.
Dr. Vespignani said that the W.H.O. figures would be reasonable if there were an effective campaign to stop the epidemic now, but that there is not.
Alessandro Vespignani, a professor of computational sciences at Northeastern University who has been involved in the computer modeling of Ebola’s spread, said that if the case count reaches hundreds of thousands, “there will be little we can do.”
…..control could be attained by preventing over half of the secondary transmissions per primary case. ….In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.
Ebola Outpaces Global Response, W.H.O. Says
A month after declaring the Ebola outbreak in West Africa a global health emergency, the World Health Organization warned on Friday that the disease is still outpacing the international response to contain it.
….So far, 4,784 Ebola cases have been reported and more than 2,400 people have died in the outbreak, which is concentrated in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, Ms. Chan said on Friday, citing the latest data available. But she made clear the figures were “an underestimate.”
….Releasing a road map to guide the international response to the crisis two weeks ago, the health organization said some 20,000 people could ultimately be affected, but Ms. Chan said Friday that the estimate could change as the epidemic evolves.
originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: ikonoklast
Have you seen the projections in Eurosurveillance?
Here you go. The high/low range projected by the article in Eurosurveillance is between the red lines. The high/low range projected in my most recent update of chart 4B (my latest projections) is between the blue lines.
Click to view full-size.
But some of the nation's top infectious disease experts worry that this deadly virus could mutate and be transmitted just by a cough or a sneeze.
"It's the single greatest concern I've ever had in my 40-year public health career," said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "I can't imagine anything in my career -- and this includes HIV -- that would be more devastating to the world than a respiratory transmissible Ebola virus."
Every time a new person gets Ebola, the virus gets another chance to mutate and develop new capabilities. Osterholm calls it "genetic roulette."
Even without becoming airborne, the virus has overwhelmed efforts to stop it.
originally posted by: quirkygirl
But some of the nation's top infectious disease experts worry that this deadly virus could mutate and be transmitted just by a cough or a sneeze.
"It's the single greatest concern I've ever had in my 40-year public health career," said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "I can't imagine anything in my career -- and this includes HIV -- that would be more devastating to the world than a respiratory transmissible Ebola virus."
I just feel like they are planting the seeds for the big announcement "guess what folks, it's airborne."
originally posted by: soficrow
originally posted by: quirkygirl
But some of the nation's top infectious disease experts worry that this deadly virus could mutate and be transmitted just by a cough or a sneeze.
"It's the single greatest concern I've ever had in my 40-year public health career," said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "I can't imagine anything in my career -- and this includes HIV -- that would be more devastating to the world than a respiratory transmissible Ebola virus."
I just feel like they are planting the seeds for the big announcement "guess what folks, it's airborne."
Not really. They're desperate and they're playing their last best card - "If you really want to protect yourselves, help us stop it from spreading and mutating into an airborne strain." ...They're pretty much down to begging now. So when Ebola goes airborne and hits the US - remember you knew what the stakes were.
originally posted by: joho99
Ebola scare: Doctors desert patients at Achimota Hospital
Interestingly the person was a Nigerian.
We might have to add Ghana to the list of country's