Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

A interesting article that could be a clue on what to expect.

What Killed The Aztecs? A Researcher Probes Role of 16th Century Megadrought

I always presumed it was small pox that reduced the aztecs to 1.2 million but it could be that small pox only removed the first 7 million and a hemorrhagic fever killed 17 million

Dr. Rodolfo Acuna-Soto, a Harvard-trained infectious disease specialist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City, it made no sense that a deadly outbreak of European origin could occur so long after the Spanish arrived, because the natives who survived previous plagues would have passed on their immunities. To find answers, Acuna-Soto spent a dozen year pouring through ancient documents written by 16th century Spanish priests who worked with the Aztecs to preserve a record of their history, language and culture. These texts also tracked key natural events—storms, droughts, frosts and illness. In particular, they detailed the plagues of cocoliztli (Nahuati for “pest”), a disease that seemed far more virulent than smallpox. “Nobody had the health or strength to help the diseased or bury the dead,” one Franciscan friar wrote in 1577 about the devastation from cocolitzli. “In the cities and large towns, big ditches were dug, and from morning to sunset the priests did nothing else but carry the dead bodies and throw them into the ditches.” Acuna-Soto also had access to exhaustive diaries kept by Francisco Hernandez, the surgeon general of New Spain who witnessed the second catastrophic epidemic in 1576. He described a highly contagious and lethal scourge that killed within a few days, causing raging fevers, jaundice, tremors, dysentery, abdominal and chest pains, enormous thirst, delirium and seizures. “Blood flowed from the ears,” the physician observed, “and in many cases blood truly gushed from the nose.” “These symptoms didn’t sound like smallpox or any other known European disease that was in Mexico during the 16th century,” Acuna-Soto told me. “This sounded like a hemorrhagic fever.

Interesting theory lets hope he got it wrong.

Yes, the Ebola virus is potentially a sexually transmitted disease. Some have suggested that sexual transmission may account for some of the cases in the current completely uncontrolled outbreak engulfing West Africa. The risk is great enough that most experts recommend no unprotected sexual intercourse for three months after recovery.

If it's transmitted through bodily fluids it would seem a no-brainer that it was sexually transmitted. However, the three month window is a bit daunting. How will they ever control it if a person is contagious for three months after they are 'cured'?

In addition, among infected women, viral DNA has been found in vaginal secretions for weeks after recovery. No one is certain that the viral DNA is actually living, transmissible virus—

This is from the daily beast so I'm not sure how reputable that site is.

www.thedailybeast.com...

a reply to: quirkygirl

COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, body fluids or organs, contain the virus. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen 61 to 82 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recovery [1] [2] [59] [60]

And remember, it cam take as few as 1 organism to infect a person.

Ebola

PATHOGEN SAFETY DATA SHEET - INFECTIOUS SUBSTANCES


It can be sexually transmitted for a long time after being 'cured.'

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

It can be sexually transmitted for a long time after being 'cured.'

Seems to me it would be easy to check vaginal fluids and ejaculate for virus - much easier than checking to see if it was sequestering in the liver for example. ....Anybody know if that's part of the testing protocol, before the "cured" pronouncement?

UPDATE

The epidemic is out of control and the window of opportunity for stopping it is closing fast. The virus is spreading exponentially and mutating rapidly - transmission is already sustained human-to-human. West Africa needs other nations to send in Biological Disaster Response Teams and military escorts; about 2000 doctors, nurses and technicians; and medical supplies. But so far, it's not happening. The clear and present danger is that if we don't stop this in West Africa, it will mutate to a pandemic strain - and go pandemic.

A number of global corporations are pulling profits from West Africa, and likely contributed to Ebola's spread through deforestation, mining and habitat destruction. It makes sense that they too should contribute to aid efforts.

NIH: Ebola Outbreak is 'Completely Out of Control'

Thousands of Health Care Workers Needed in Global Effort to Stop Ebola Outbreak

CATASTROPHE WARNING

The director of the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) warned on Friday of a "catastrophe" if emergency action were not taken immediately to reverse the trend of rising cases.

"There is time to avoid a catastrophe but only if immediate and urgent action is taken at every level," Tom Frieden said in the Sierra Leone capital Freetown.

Fauci says … in West Africa right now, the rate of infection is exponential, …. "The number of cases per unit time is dramatically increasing."

…."That exponential increase indicates that the virus is now "beyond the interventions we have in place," Fauci says. He noted that West Africa in particular needs better health care infrastructure, personal protective medical gear and "many, many more beds."

To accomplish these improvements, he says, there will need to be a "sea change" in the amount of assistance being sent to aid groups. ...

"This has got to be a concerted global effort," he says. The funding is needed to manufacture treatments and transport them, as well as health care workers and patients, across Africa.

Once the growth of an outbreak becomes exponential, the tools normally at the disposal of health officials have limited value. It may require military airlifts just to deliver sufficient rubber gloves, aprons, soap and buckets to highly affected areas. Doctors Without Borders is calling for the deployment of civilian and military medical teams to provide triage centers, field hospitals with isolation wards, mobile diagnostic labs and systems for the management of corpses.

But who will direct and implement such an effort? The WHO is not an emergency response organization; it is known mainly for bureaucracy and infighting. The United Nations has no epidemic response force comparable to its peacekeeping operations (though perhaps it should). It is hard to imagine a coordinated effort on a sufficient scale that is not organized by the United States.

1 in 10 health-care workers treating Ebola gets infected
Read more at www.wnd.com...

how are so many healthcare workers getting infected if they are using precautions? This terrifies me.

a reply to: quirkygirl

for what it is worth....Matt Laur interviewed the dr that survived....I tried to pay close attention...he said he always wore total protection around the patients...he3 didn't get it in the clinic...he thinks he got it when he put his arm around one of the ebola patients' relatives....I have a bad cold and fell asleep after that part.

a reply to: soficrow
Events are unfolding like a novel. Only it's real.

Yes it does seem like something out of a novel or movie. Only in a movie the events are sped for movie time. This is real life, and we going to have to stand back and watch over the next year. From the start of this outbreak I have been reading the news articles, trying to closely follow as an observer half a world away. But since back in June when MSF sounded the alarm I have felt very uneasy about this whole thing. I have feared this will go global and now I truly believe it will. I plan to do what I can just in case...stock up on Lysol, masks, rubber gloves, food and water. If I have to throw the gloves and ,masks away at some point, so be it.

There's one thing that's been bothering me about this ebola epidemic. With all the reporting about dead bodies piling up in the street and rioting, how come there hasn't been much photographic evidence? I know some of these places are remote but I'm certain there are still photographers or reporters around, and the local people or doctors or helpers all have phones with cameras. Why hasn't there been more pictures detailing these horrendous conditions? If nothing else wouldn't they want to spread the news to show just how bad it is?

Now it's not that I want to see these pictures for gratuitous reasons, I just feel that the visual evidence doesn't seem to add up to some of the stories and alarm that is being raised. But if anyone has links or information related to this, it would be much appreciated. The numbers are certainly alarming, but there's also something that's just off about this whole epidemic that I can't put my finger on...

a reply to: soficrow

seems ironic to me. The People of Afrika have been the guinea pigs of big pharma for years... seen the movie Constant Gardener?

I hope big pharma's latest 'trial' and 'test' does get out of hand and smite them...

a reply to: pejanene

blame the filters on the search browsers = under Government control.

Ebola Victims/Health Authority

a reply to: drwill

All this reminds me of a tv show from when i was young called survivors.
The music used to terrify me at the time lol

Basically it was about a plague killing off 99% of the human population.

a reply to: CatLady3912

...since back in June when MSF sounded the alarm...

FYI - MSF was onsite by January-February, was begging for help by the beginning of March, and by end-March said Ebola was epidemic and could become a global crisis - which is when I started this thread, posted on Mar, 30 2014 @ 05:43 PM.

originally posted by: Thurisaz
a reply to: pejanene

blame the filters on the search browsers = under Government control.

Ebola Victims/Health Authority

That is exactly as I've imagine it and worse. Emphasis Imagined. The images I've seen attached to all the articles I've read are not showing the true visual nature of this situation there. They've all been too clean.

I wasn't feeling panicky about it, until I read that Obama didn't feel an emergency response team effort was what was needed at this time.

originally posted by: Thurisaz
a reply to: soficrow

seems ironic to me. The People of Afrika have been the guinea pigs of big pharma for years... seen the movie Constant Gardener?

I hope big pharma's latest 'trial' and 'test' does get out of hand and smite them...

Read the book. ...Unfortunately, if "big pharma's latest 'trial' and 'test' does get out of hand and smite them," we're the ones who will pay first. And they'll just pocket the profits.

UPDATE [Posted elsewhere but needs to be here too.]

From Bad to Worse With Ebola

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD NYTimes
SEPT. 6, 2014

The widening epidemic of Ebola in West Africa looks worse with each passing day. The outbreaks in the hardest-hit countries — Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone — have outstripped the ability of humanitarian groups and fragile government health systems to treat the sick and slow the spread.

A panicky effort to quarantine a large slum in Monrovia, Liberia, using troops to keep people penned in, proved a disastrous failure that probably made things worse. A shortage of protective clothing for health care workers treating sick patients in Sierra Leone led nurses to strike last week in a desperate effort to get more help. The virus has begun to spread to other countries where there is always a danger that it could ignite a new round of outbreaks.

In separate statements last week, officials of the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the medical charity Doctors Without Borders warned that the outbreak is spreading out of control. W.H.O. leaders have said the outbreak in West Africa could be stopped in six to nine months, but only if a “massive” global response, which is nowhere in sight, is carried out.

….The most shocking news of the week was how ill-prepared the W.H.O. was to organize an effective response. As Sheri Fink reported in The Times on Thursday, the agency had been weakened by harsh budget cuts in recent years and did not have the staff or ability to flood the Ebola zone. Its emergency response units have been slashed, veterans who led previous fights against Ebola have left, and scores of positions have been eliminated.

….Given the W.H.O.’s weaknesses, the White House ought to consider whether the United States should take the lead.

Well, well. Step one.

Obama Warns Ebola Outbreak Could Worsen

President Barack Obama says helping contain the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is a U.S. national security priority but it’s going to be a long and difficult task.

He says the American military will be helping set up isolation units and equipment there and providing security for public health workers flocking in from around the world.

….Obama warned that if the virus spreads it could mutate and conceivably reach the United States and become a serious public health issue, although he said ‘‘it shouldn’t reach our shores.’’

Obama: U.S. must fight Ebola now or face long-term risk

…."If we don't make that effort now, and this spreads not just through Africa but other parts of the world, there's the prospect then that the virus mutates. It becomes more easily transmittable," he said in the interview broadcast on Sunday.

Ebola is a 'national security priority,' Obama says

….Obama cautioned that inaction could have dire consequences.
"If we don't make that effort now, and this spreads not just through Africa but other parts of the world, there's the prospect then that the virus mutates. It becomes more easily transmittable. And then it could be a serious danger to the United States," Obama said.

a reply to: soficrow

Air traffic projections of the inevitable spread.


From NPR...a few days old. Some comments are worth reading. They echo what has been said on ATS threads.
www.npr.org...

a reply to: drwill

this is interesting a third person arrived back in the usa with ebola he is quarrentined of course....here is the thing, he was NOT treating ebola patients, he was delivering babies...so how did he catch it??

nypost.com...

a reply to: research100

....he was NOT treating ebola patients, he was delivering babies...so how did he catch it??

One of his patients had Ebola but no one knew. ....It's infectious when symptoms first appear, but those symptoms are not obviously Ebola. Could be anything - a cold, flu.....