Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

a reply to: soficrow

It is being dismissed because it is not an issue. Yes it is scary and yes it has up to a 90% mortality rate, but only 300 people have died from it. It only transmits through fluids.

The death score wouldn't even be that high except these countries have very few resources, not even basic gloves, to handle patients that have it.

The seasonal flu can kill that many people in a state in a day on a moderate year. That is where the seriousness is.

But the pandemic doom porn folks fail to see that there is still far more risk in the boring ol flu or even from rabies, than there is from ebola.

It isn't airborne. It does not have a high infection rate, which is far more important than the fatality rate. It is not that big of a deal except for those poor souls in small village Africa, that have it.

a reply to: 59demon

This IS a new strain - confirmed Ebola. More info.

originally posted by: nixie_nox
a reply to: soficrow

It is being dismissed because it is not an issue.

I am so relieved. Unfortunately, you missed the Emergency International Ebola Meeting last week but maybe you could just email your analysis and explain they're wasting their time.

...yes it has up to a 90% mortality rate,

No. This new strain only has about a 60% fatality rate.

.....It is not that big of a deal except for those poor souls in small village Africa, that have it.

Hmm. This Ebola epidemic is hitting cities, trading hubs and capital cities with international airports - in 3 different countries at least. Definitely not restricted to the jungles. Also, seems Ebola has been decimating monkey and ape populations across Africa for the past few years. Not a good sign.

Basic sanitation practices thwarts contagion of this virus. If we didn't have sewers, or indoor plumbing, I'd be a bit more freaked out.

The chances of this infecting, say 1/3 of the population? It's just implausible.

a reply to: pl3bscheese

I doubt this epidemic is a pandemic threat - but that doesn't mean it's not a global crisis. Also, we don't know enough about this new strain OR it's evolutionary path.



PS. My agenda involves pushing to STOP industrial and other practices that change the environment and thus, trigger rapid evolutionary change in viruses and microbes, and via "infection," on up the ladder.

a reply to: soficrow

If it doesn't become a pandemic, how could it be a global crisis? Guess I'm not following you here.

It would be nice if industry had a conscience, and didn't create practices and implement policy based on short term profits for shareholders. If you wanted to end this, I'd look to reform corporate law. Unfortunately, I don't think there's enough people with the intellectual acumen to make the necessary changes.

originally posted by: pl3bscheese
a reply to: soficrow

If it doesn't become a pandemic, how could it be a global crisis? Guess I'm not following you here.

It's a looming global crisis in terms of the immediate impact on economies and trade. Think "commitment of medical research and resources, surveillance at airports and border crossings." The current wisdom is that Ebola might make to North America (for example), but the risk would be quickly contained because our health infrastructures are so sophisticated. As well, unlike Africa's uneducated tribespeople, Americans and Canadians would not try to escape from hospital, or think treatments and vaccines actually are designed to spread disease and kill patients. [sic]

...As the human population grows, the climate warms, and (as) millions travel the world for business or pleasure, we will have to factor in some inevitable new costs for dealing with new diseases: commitment of medical research and resources, surveillance at airports and border crossings. Governments will stand or fall by their ability to deal with sudden health threats. Millions of lives will be ended or shortened or simply made miserable by new diseases.... Most of the victims will be poor people in poor countries.

Charles Dickens knew when he wrote Bleak House in the 1850s that the diseases of the poor are no respecters of the rich. And today's diseases travel fast and far.

...It's possible someone could travel to Canada, for example, and then become sick and contagious, but it's likely the risk would be quickly contained.

"Because we take common sense measures when we see someone who is ill — we keep our distance, we try not to touch them, we avoid contact — even before anybody knows what was wrong with that particular person, they would probably take these common sense approaches to avoid contact with them," explains Jagatic.

Compared to West Africa, Canada's "health infrastructure is so well built up that we would be able to prevent the spread if somebody were to come into the country contaminated," he says.

It would be nice if industry had a conscience, and didn't create practices and implement policy based on short term profits for shareholders. If you wanted to end this, I'd look to reform corporate law. Unfortunately, I don't think there's enough people with the intellectual acumen to make the necessary changes.

Check and check.

The new Ebola strain that appeared in West Africa has only a 60% fatality rate compared to 90% with other strains. The virulent strains tend to burn out quickly, but not this one - the epidemic is neither contained nor under control.

The Most Worrying Thing About The West Africa Ebola Outbreak Is It Should Have Been Contained By Now

“…normally (Ebola) is horrifically virulent but burns itself out very quickly….

“Once the incubation period has passed and the infection has burnt itself out then that’s the end of the outbreak.”

But with this outbreak, that hasn’t happened.

More than 779 cases of Ebola and over 481 deaths have been reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone since March, according to the World Health Organisation.

The deadly disease has appeared in cities as well as rural and border areas. Its mortality rate, at 60%, is lower than previous Ebola outbreaks which have killed as much as 90% of people infected.

WHO : “We can beat this Ebola outbreak”

UPDATE

Reporting 50 New Cases and 25 Dead, WHO Says Ebola Outbreak Won't Slow Down[/url

[url=http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/07/we-are-making-ebola-worse] We Are Making Ebola Outbreaks Worse by Cutting Down Forests

H ow deforestation shares the blame for the Ebola epidemic

Deforestation leads to Ebola

Authorities blame cultural traditions for West Africa's Ebola epidemic being out of control - but - this new strain has a long incubation period (that can last up to 3 weeks), and the virus can remain in the body up to 61 days after symptoms appear (for a possible total of 82 of potentially infectious days). Moreover, it has only a 60% fatality rate (not 90%). These factors meet all of the main criteria for pandemic potential excepting "easy to transmit." Authorities claim very close contact is required for transmission between people, however, given that the virus is in the blood, insect vectors may be overlooked as a mode of transmission.

E bola outbreak sweeps hot spots

...The haemorrhagic fever sweeping through Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone has left up to 539 people dead, according to the latest WHO figures.

...Medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières said last week the outbreak was “out of control”, with more than 60 hot spots.

People are infectious as long as their blood and secretions contain the virus. Ebola virus was isolated from semen 61 days after onset of illness in a man who was infected in a laboratory.

The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms, is 2 to 21 days.

...To fit its movie role, a novel pathogen would need several characteristics -- it would have to be easily transmissible and eventually lethal but with a long incubation period in which the victim was asymptomatic but able to infect many people.

Again, The Most Worrying Thing About The West Africa Ebola Outbreak Is It Should Have Been Contained By Now.

Saw this article news.msn.com... and had to check in to make sure your still keeping us informed...and indeed you are
From the link:
"The disease has turned up in at least two other countries — Liberia and Sierra Leone — and 539 deaths have been attributed to the outbreak that is now the largest on record."

X

a reply to: soficrow

Your point about transmission by insects is actually a worrying thought.....

Even here in Ireland BLOODY horse flies are currently biting like hell and that could be an issue elsewhere too.

Pduk

a reply to: Xcouncil=wisdom
a reply to: PurpleDog UK

Thanks guys. Note the last quote.

Ebola death toll passes 600 in West Africa

Deepening Ebola crisis blamed on ‘gross misjudgment’

There has been “a gross misjudgment across the board in gauging the severity and scale of damage the current Ebola outbreak can unleash,” the aid group Plan International warned earlier this month.

“There are no cases from outside Africa to date. The threat of it spreading though is very much there,” said Dr. Unni Krishnan, head of disaster preparedness and response for the aid group.

…Doctors Without Borders says it fears the number of patients now being treated in Sierra Leone could be “just the tip of the iceberg.” Nearly 40 were reported in a single village in the country’s east.

“We’re under massive time pressure: The longer it takes to find and follow up with people who have come in contact with sick people, the more difficult it will be to control the outbreak,” said Anja Wolz, emergency coordinator for the group, also referred to by its French name Medecins Sans Frontieres.

This Ebola virus is a new strain and did not spread to West Africa from previous outbreaks in Uganda and Congo, researchers say. ….

….WHO health officials are hopeful they will be able to get the situation under control in the next several weeks.

….Dr. Keiji Fukuda, WHO’s assistant director-general for health security and environment. “….saying that it’s out of control makes it sound like there are no solutions. This is a virus for which there are very clear solutions.”

In Sierra Leone, people are accusing doctors of administering lethal injections to the Ebola patients or removing vital organs for sale in European markets. As a result, doctors and nurses in the hospitals have been attacked and many nurses are not wearing their uniforms on the way to work for fear of being attacked in the streets. (IPS)

wow

your last quote "In Sierra Leone, people are accusing doctors of administering lethal injections to the Ebola patients or removing vital organs for sale in European markets. As a result, doctors and nurses in the hospitals have been attacked and many nurses are not wearing their uniforms on the way to work for fear of being attacked in the streets. (IPS) "

That's just crazy
attacking those that help you, because you feel they are hurting you
Seems a global theme these days

I'm still wondering about insect bites and possible transmission of diseases…

en.wikipedia.org...

good old Wiki here shows a list of diseases transmitted via ' biting' insects……. ouch….!

The main point is how long a virus or bacterium can survive outside the human body or a host body…..

Now where is my insect repellant and rolled up newspaper……

PDUK

a reply to: Xcouncil=wisdom

....That's just crazy
attacking those that help you, because you feel they are hurting you
Seems a global theme these days

And unfortunately, based on true history. Given the facts, why should people believe that this time the help is real?

Talk about reaping what you sow....

originally posted by: PurpleDog UK
I'm still wondering about insect bites and possible transmission of diseases…

....The main point is how long a virus or bacterium can survive outside the human body or a host body…..

Yeah, that. It's totally logical and self-evident - bloodborne diseases can be spread by insects. So can prion diseases for that matter - and Ebola's "transformer" protein pretty much qualifies - and prions don't die. So the "main point" is moot. Also, we know Ebola remains active in semen up to 61 days after onset (but not in other bodily fluids like blood?). All of which might help explain the "unprecedented" geographic spread of this new strain.

Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness. ....Ebola virus was isolated from semen 61 days after onset of illness...

MORE

From the New York Times:

Death Toll From Ebola Surges in West Africa, Prompting Alarm

And some unmitigated pure bullcrap from FOXnews and Georgia Republican Rep. Phil Gingrey, a longtime physician(!):

Georgia Republican Rep. Phil Gingrey, a longtime physician, wrote a letter last week to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about his fear that the (Mexican immigrant) children might introduce Americans to the deadly Ebola virus.

Well DUH, Dr. Gingrey, Ebola is in Africa, separated from Mexico by the Atlantic Ocean and more than a really big continent. I sincerely hope your medical license is revoked on the grounds of intolerable ignorance.

...and maybe we can get FOXnews' license pulled too? For disseminating pure bs and promoting ignorant panic?

....They (Mexican immigrant children) are bringing in dangerous diseases—including swine flu, dengue fever, Ebola virus and tuberculosis— and occupying our military bases as shelters.

FYI FOX - the US exported the pandemic strain of H1N1 swine flu to Mexico back in 2008, just before the pandemic was acknowledged in 2009. Plus the fact that Africa (and the Ebola epidemic) is really, really far away from Mexico.

It just keeps getting worse.

Cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa continue surfacing at a steady clip, as the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed 18 new illnesses and 11 new deaths over 2 days.

The new figures expand what is by far the largest and deadliest Ebola outbreak in history to 982 cases and 613 deaths. Both numbers are more than twice the size of any previous EVD outbreak. An outbreak in Uganda in 2000 sickened 425 people, and one in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976 killed 280.

a reply to: soficrow

Its not sounding very good at all. The numbers are rising albeit very slowly but they are rising.

I'm wondering if this 'EBOLA' can survive in freezing cold conditions?

I reckon it wouldn't survive in somewhere like Alaska, Antarctic, Greenland... these types of Areas!

If i hear of it spreading to North/East Africa, I'm heading to a Cold Climate! Maybe even the Himalayas, The Andes or the Alps.

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

I wonder. What with climate change and all. Cold places aren't that cold any more.

Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update 23 July 2014

….As of 20 July 2014, the cumulative number of cases attributed to EVD in the three countries stands at 1 093, including 660 deaths. The distribution and classification of the cases are as follows: Guinea, 415 cases (304 confirmed, 98 probable, and 13 suspected) and 314 deaths (204 confirmed, 98 probable, and 12 suspected); Liberia, 224 cases (77 confirmed, 68 probable, and 79 suspected) and 127 deaths (56 confirmed, 44 probable, and 27 suspected); and Sierra Leone, 454 cases (405 confirmed, 35 probable, and 14 suspected) and 219 deaths (182 confirmed, 32 probable, and 5 suspected).

PS. H1N1 swine flu hiccoughed around the States for a good long while before the pandemic started in Mexico.