Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

a reply to: cloaked4u

What area do you mean? ....Are you planning a vacation in Africa? Investing in African tourism or resource extraction? Did you read the OP or thread?

UPDATE

MSF (Médecins Sans Frontières) continues to carry a heavy load whilst everyone else continues to play politics with public health, for profit.

West Africa Ebola Cases Eclipse 400, MSF To Set Up Treatment Center In Sierra Leone

The number of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) cases reported in West Africa continues to climb with cases being reported in Boffa on Guinea’s coast to Telimele in Kindia region. New patients have also been registered in Conakry, Gueckedou and Macenta.

During the last days of May, Guinea recorded 37 new cases and 21 new deaths in five districts. The cumulative number of cases and deaths attributable to EVD in Guinea is now 328 (laboratory confirmed 193, probable 80, and suspected 55) including 208 deaths, according to a World Health Organization (WHO) update today.

During the same period, 13 new cases were reported in Sierra Leone. The total number of cases is now up to 79 (18 confirmed, 3 probable, and 58 suspected), including 6 deaths.

….MSF notes the rise in cases may be due to a reluctance on the part of patients to go to hospital. The movement of infected people and cadavers is also a major issue. Families frequently transport dead bodies themselves in order to organise funerals other towns. The multiplication of affected areas makes it difficult to treat patients and control the epidemic. “The main challenges we face on the ground are resistance within communities and follow-up with of people who have crossed borders and may be infected.”

Ebola totals grow steadily in Guinea, Sierra Leone

A fresh round of Ebola virus infections in West Africa is continuing, with Guinea and Sierra Leone together reporting 52 more cases and Guinea reporting more deaths, according to an update from the World Health Organization (WHO) that covers outbreak developments between May 29 and Jun 1.

Guinea reported 39 new cases and 21 deaths in five different districts, pushing the total number so far to 328, of which 193 are lab confirmed. So far 208 deaths have been reported.

Health officials are following 604 contacts, and 16 patients are currently hospitalized.

Meanwhile, Sierra Leone reported 13 new cases in two different districts, lifting the country's total to 79 cases, of which 18 have been confirmed by lab tests. No new deaths were reported, keeping the total at 6. Four patients are in isolation at Kenema Hospital.

A patient from Sierra Leone with a suspected Ebola infection died in Foya, Liberia, and the individual's body was taken back to Kailahun in Sierra Leone for burial. The WHO said 11 contacts in Liberia are being monitored.

Doctors Without Borders Worried About Spread of Ebola Outbreak

UK employees leave Sierra Leone over Ebola threat

A number of "non-essential" staff at a British firm in Sierra Leone have left the country following an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus.

London Mining has restricted some travel to the area but said production at its Marampa mine was unaffected.

It said it was working with local and international agencies to monitor the situation.

….Iron ore company London Mining said essential staff continued to travel in and out of the country and it was carefully monitoring the health of all of its employees.

But non-essential travel of its staff to the region has been restricted.

The eight staff who had already left the country departed on regular flights, the firm added.

…."A number of non-essential personnel have left the country due to voluntary restrictions on non-essential travel.

…."Production at Marampa is not currently affected".

www.theguardian.com...

Above increase in deaths also reported in the Guardian.

Are they just updating their figures or has their been an increase in deathrate suddenly, do you think, Soficrow?

a reply to: Elliot

I stopped watching the death rates some time ago - just assumed there would be more, up to 90%. Also, they missed a lot of cases - some of those cases (and deaths) are now being confirmed. ...My concern is that the epidemic has NOT been stopped.

....Am I missing something you see here?

Pretty much my worst fear... didn't realize it was this bad I will put my eyes back on that issue.

Growing Ebola Outbreak Threatens to Overwhelm Volunteers

…..Genetic analysis of the virus causing the current outbreaks show it’s distinct from the virus seen in east Africa. This suggests it may be from a local source. No one’s sure just where Ebola cames from. It can affect great apes but fruit bats are a prime suspect.

Garry, who was only scheduled to stay for a couple of weeks, now says he is not sure when he can leave. "I don't think it's going to be soon," he said.

Ebola Gets Worse in West Africa

The World Health Organization warned last Wednesday that the epidemic caused by the deadly Ebola virus in West Africa, which had seemed to be waning, has recently taken a turn for the worse. The afflicted nations and their neighbors will need to redouble their efforts to contain a virus for which there is neither a cure nor a vaccine.

www.independent.co.uk...

So now there is a claim that Ebola is out of control.

Is this the first time it has been out of control?

a reply to: Elliot

Well, it's gone out of control partly because this is a part of Africa that is amongst the poorest even for African standards, partly because it's appearing mostly in areas that are extremely rural, and partly because the people there are blaming the doctors and such for transmission or are actively breaking out loved ones from quarantine.

When they say that it's "out of control", that's actually what they mean: quarantining people so that they can cut off the disease's spread is becoming increasingly difficult.

a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneckSo, why not enforce a quarantine for everyone in that area to prevent a spread to the rest of Africa? Every country that has the illness should be forced to close its borderes. The ramifications of this on a country's economy, in the short run, would of course be bad and unwelcome. However, should the whole of Africa become involved, would the whole of Africa also need to be quarantined. This is an untreatable illness out on its own forging a new path. What are the chances it can be eliminated? Rather flimsy unless stern action is taken by the looks of it.

a reply to: Elliot

I don't agree - for one thing, current research shows that quarantine does not work. For another, the evidence suggests ebola has already spread throughout Africa. But your's is an old idea - from 2006: Why We Must Quarantine Africa Soon.

Also see: Quarantine Until Death: The Pandemic Policy Now on Trial in the Court of Public Opinion.

Not that ebola isn't out of control. And let's not forget MERS, on the other end of Africa - never mind the bird flu's in Asia, mostly endemic now like the hemorrhagic fevers in Africa. If it isn't one thing, it's another.

Problem is, we're all connected. Time to figure out how to live in our world - and figure out the how and why of how things adapt, evolve and work together. Maybe focus on the potentials for cooperation instead of "attack and decimate" approaches.

Ebola Outbreak 'Tip of the Iceberg,' Experts Say
BY MAGGIE FOX

An "out of control" outbreak of Ebola in West Africa that’s being called the deadliest ever is far from over and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better, experts predict.

And health workers who have been fighting the outbreak, which spans three countries and has killed more than 300 people, say they are certain many cases are going unreported as they see gruesome infections, dangerous myths and people fleeing the virus, potentially spreading it further.

“This is the tip of the iceberg,” said Robert Garry, a microbiology professor at the Tulane University School of Medicine who’s been leading relief and investigation efforts in Sierra Leone for the Viral Hemorraghic Fever Consortium.

….A Doctors Without Borders official said Friday that the outbreak was out of control.

And the numbers make it clear this is the biggest outbreak yet of Ebola since the virus was first identified in 1976. The virus, which causes a particularly nasty form of hemorrhagic fever, has killed 337 people out of 528 infected.

“This is the biggest outbreak we have ever actually seen of Ebola,” Kazadi said. “It’s the biggest both in numbers and in terms of geography,” Garry agreed.

….Genetic testing makes it clear this particular Ebola outbreak is being caused by a local strain that arose in West Africa. Ebola had only been seen in central Africa before, but the discovery suggests that the virus had been circulating undetected before. Hemorrhagic fevers are common in Africa — Garry’s team was originally in Sierra Leone to study and fight another virus, one that causes Lassa fever.

….Bats are another suspected source. Bats carry hundreds of viruses and carry antibodies to Ebola, which suggests they can be infected. Bat meat could be one source, but so could bat spit.

“It’s mango season. The bats are eating the mangoes and the people are eating the mangoes,” Garry said.

It’s not an unusual idea. Researchers tracking Middle East Respiratory Syndrome virus or MERS are also checking the theory that fruit-eating bats may spread that virus in their saliva.

a reply to: soficrow
Wouldn't it be 'nice' if we could carry on with this very 'liberal' attitude towards Ebola and not quarantine?

Wouldn't it be 'nice' if there were no consequences to both 'action' and 'inacton'?

Either way, Ebola is not going away, at least not yet.

It does not appear to be a voracious air bourne illness otherwise there would be utter devastation in Africa, and possibly the world by now. Its vectors do not appear to exist out of the continent of Africa, yet.

But as with MERS, I would be very interested to know the races ( and where they have recently visited) of people who have been affected by this illness.

MERS, with its high death rate does not appear to be a 'contagous' illness as in easily transmitted from human to human. There is something else going on there.

But Ebola, well, it has potential to be devastating. Should we not 'offend' anyone by quarantining?

Have you ever read Jack London's 'The Scarlet Plague' and also, 'The Unparralleled Invasion'?

Something to ponder in both stories.

originally posted by: Elliot
a reply to: soficrow
Wouldn't it be 'nice' if we could carry on with this very 'liberal' attitude towards Ebola and not quarantine?

Wouldn't it be 'nice' if there were no consequences to both 'action' and 'inacton'? .....Should we not 'offend' anyone by quarantining?

Again, "Quarantine doesn't work." Won't work. ....I'm sure you know the difference between "isolating" the infected and "quarantining" the exposed. I'm also confident you know
1) quarantine has been historically used to discriminate against minorities;
2) studies demonstrate that mass quarantine is ineffective;
3) a large scale quarantine would be difficult to implement.

As well,

An outbreak should meet the following three criteria for quarantine to be a useful measure of disease control:

first, people likely to be incubating the infection must be efficiently and effectively identified;
second, those people must comply with the conditions of quarantine; and
third, the infectious disease in question must be transmissible in its presymptomatic or early symptomatic stages.

Q: How will the health department quarantine large areas? Thousands of people?
A: There are no DOH plans to impose mass quarantine or to close large areas as part of pandemic response. History teaches that such quarantine efforts are ineffective at best. ….

Zaire Lifts Quarantine On Ebola-Stricken Region -- Order Held Ineffective

Japan: Quarantine At Ports Ineffective Against Pandemic Flu

But speaking of "liberal" civil liberties...

The infelicities of quarantine

a reply to: soficrowIf it is true that Ebola is not yet airborne then perhaps there is still a chance to 'isolate', 'quarantine'? As the spread gets larger perhaps at that point there will no longer be a point. But to not isolate sufferers is surely playing into the hands of the virus by giving it freedom to spread by continued contact. There is NO other way at this point in time. No treatment, No Vaccine, No Anything except the very basic method of prevention.

originally posted by: Elliot
a reply to: soficrow ....perhaps there is still a chance to 'isolate', 'quarantine'? ....There is NO other way at this point in time. No treatment, No Vaccine, No Anything except the very basic method of prevention.

Are you advocating mass quarantine of specific areas and nations - perhaps the entire African continent? Because recent efforts to isolate the infected and quarantine the exposed in West Africa have proven unsuccessful - the resident population is "non-compliant" - and the borders are porous (to say the least).

But studies prove that mass quarantine is ineffective - as you must know. And the evidence suggests Ebola has spread throughout most of the African continent - just as bird flu is endemic in much of Asia. In fact, virtually every continent is riddled with emerging zoonoses that threaten to become pandemic in humans.

Examples are avian influenza, Bovine Spongiform Encephalitis (BSE) and the Nipah virus. Some of the "lingering" zoonoses are re-emerging in some regions, .... Brucellosis, dog rabies and parasitic diseases such as cysticercosis/taeniasis and echinococcosis/hydatidosis for example.

Many factors lead to the emergence of zoonotic diseases. Environmental changes, human and animal demography, pathogen changes and changes in farming practice are a few of them. Social and cultural factors such as food habits and religious beliefs play a role too.

Are you saying that the multi-resistant super-bugs and super-flu's created by modern medicine and factory farms are "safer" than diseases that emerge in the wild?

That debilitating chronic epigenetic diseases triggered by industrial exposures are somehow "better" than infectious diseases evolving naturally in the wild?

Do you think every continent should be isolated? Quarantined to prevent disease evolution and spread? That no continent should have any contact with any other? ....Although I doubt even such extreme measures would work, even if they were enforceable, which they are not. Fact is, we are all one and the processes that link us are still largely unknown.

There are over 200 zoonotic diseases. The major zoonotic diseases WHO deals with are listed below. You will find an introduction to the disease and links to related information on the internet.

List of diseases

Anthrax
Animal influenza
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)
Foodborne zoonoses
Haemorrhagic fevers
Leptospirosis
Neglected zoonotic diseases
Prion diseases
Tularaemia
Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD)

a reply to: soficrow
I do understand what you are saying about isolating an area with an illness and its difficulties. But, we cannot give up on Africa and its peoples, can we?

With no treatment option, isn't an attempt to isolate the virus the only chance of if not stopping it, then slowing it down until some kind of treatment option turns up.

The death rate of this illness is shocking. In the absence of medication of any type, what kind of options do the African peoples have?

I don't believe that Ebola is an illness that will travel around the world , even for a moment. I do believe that Africa has more than enough problems already.

originally posted by: Elliot
a reply to: soficrow
I do understand what you are saying about isolating an area with an illness....

I am not saying anything at all about "isolating an area" - as I pointed out, there is a HUGE difference between isolation (isolating infected individuals) and quarantine (isolating exposed individuals). Not sure what you are talking about, but it seems like some weird expansion of the worst aspects of abusive quarantine.

...isn't an attempt to isolate the virus the only chance of ...slowing it down ...?

How do you think you can isolate a virus that's clearly endemic to much of Africa? Do you think you can isolate just one of the Ebola strains? ....Ebola certainly is in bats, apes and monkeys if not other mammals. It may be in the soil, perhaps in insects. We don't know. We do know there are several strains spread around different regions of Africa.

The death rate of this illness is shocking.

Much in life is shocking - and the African peoples have seen more than their fair share of most of it.

In the absence of medication of any type, what kind of options do the African peoples have?

Just to be clear - the 'augmented' quarantine you describe would not benefit African peoples - it would just work to ensure the virus does not escape the continent. And likely fail.

...Most likely, Africans have been dealing with hemorrhagic fevers since the dawn of man. Most likely, they will run to the bush and isolate themselves until it's over, which they most likely have done all along, since the dawn of man.

Of course, those addicted to bright lights and city life might find the situation more difficult to handle.

The WHO outright dismissed Doctors Without Borders' pleas for help when the outbreak started - stirling posted the standard rationale on this thread's first page, "Ebola and its relatives kill its hosts almost too fast to sustain a full fledged outbreak pandemic." ...Turns out that's not quite right and the WHO is backtracking big time.

...But they missed the window for preventive response. The epidemic is out of control now - and all that's left in the arsenal is wide-scale quarantine. Which won't work (as explained in the posts above).

'Drastic action' needed on Ebola

"Drastic action" is needed to contain the spread of deadly Ebola in West Africa, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Nearly 400 people have died in the outbreak which started in Guinea and has spread to neighbouring Sierra Leone and Liberia.

It is the largest outbreak in terms of cases, deaths and geographical spread.

The WHO said it was "gravely concerned" and there was potential for "further international spread".

........The charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF/Doctors Without Borders) has already warned that the Ebola outbreak is out of control.

It says the epidemic will spread further unless there is a stronger international response.

UPDATE

The headlines tell the tale.

This is now the deadliest ebola outbreak on record — and it’s getting worse

Ebola outbreak 'out of control,' ravaging West Africa, doctors warn

Ebola outbreak: 'The situation is not out of hand' says WHO medical official

Denial Spreads Ebola








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a reply to: soficrow

It's now back on the front pages of Skynews:

news.sky.com...

news.sky.com...

news.sky.com...

An Ebola expert has warned that the current epidemic affecting parts of West Africa is unprecedented and difficult to control.

Britain is to lead the fight against antibiotic-resistant superbugs which risk sending Britain "back to the Dark Ages", David Cameron will announce today.

Tens of thousands of people around the world are dying from infections caused by bugs that have become resistant to treatment, including salmonella and tuberculosis.

The World Health Organisation has warned that unless coordinated action is taken the world is heading towards a post-antibiotic era in which common infections and minor injuries can once again kill.

"This is not some distant threat, but something happening right now," the Prime Minister will say.

"If we fail, we are looking at an almost unthinkable scenario where antibiotics no longer work and we are cast back into the dark ages of medicine where treatable infections and injuries will kill once again."

The worst Ebola outbreak ever is spreading and will almost certainly extend across West Africa unless there is cross-country co-operation and urgent international assistance.

The porous borders between Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone has meant the disease is not being contained and now risks spreading even further.

Health workers at the epicentre, where the borders of the three countries meet, have made an urgent appeal through Sky News for immediate international help to try to control the virus.

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Thanks for posting.

This Ebola epidemic has several "firsts." This is the first time:

1. Ebola has been seen in West Africa;

2. Three countries are involved; and

3. Outbreaks are hitting cities (capital cities with international airports!).

Fortunately [sic], the fatality rate for this strain is about 60% (not the 90% that occurs with some other strains).

Ebola virus: Can nations stop deadliest ever outbreak from spreading?

The World Health Organization has warned that "drastic action" is needed to halt the killer in its tracks.

It reports there have been 759 cases, including 467 deaths, in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as of June 30. The outbreak began in March.

This makes it the "largest in terms of the number of cases and deaths as well as geographical spread," said WHO.

….The scientist who first discovered the Ebola virus in the 1970s, Dr. Peter Piot, told CNN's Christiane Amanpour that the situation is "unprecedented."

"One, [this is] the first time in West Africa that we have such an outbreak," he said.

"Secondly, it is the first time that three countries are involved. And thirdly it's the first time that we have outbreaks in capitals, in capital cities."

a reply to: soficrow

It wouldn't be fortunate if this strain is confirmed Ebola Zaire and is only killing 60% of the infected. That would mean it's a mutated strain.