THE TRUTH ABOUT RUSSIA: 5 Charts That Show What A Disaster The Economy Is Under Putin

Its economy is bad compared to what? Over the past decade it has had huge growth and even over the past few years it has outpaced the EU and US except for last year when it had slightly less growth than the US. Take into account other factors like having less debt as a percentage of GDP (10% vs 103%) and its main export being a non-discretionary commodity nations need to run their economies I would say their position looks pretty strong. If it wasn't I doubt they would have dared challenge the US over Syria or held their ground on a number of issues recently.

Russian GDP growth

1.3% (2013 est.)
3.4% (2012 est.)
4.3% (2011 est.)

EU GDP growth

0% (2013 est.)
-0.3% (2012 est.)
1.7% (2011 est.)

US GDP growth

1.6% (2013 est.)
2.8% (2012 est.)
1.8% (2011 est.)

www.cia.gov...

The next link only shows individual EU nations growth but shows a longer time period than the above link.

Russian GDP growth

4.5% (2010)
-7.8% (2009)
5.2% (2008)
8.5% (2007)
8.2% (2006)
6.4% (2005)
7.2% (2004)
7.3% (2003)
4.7% (2002)
5.1% (2001)
10.0% (2000)

US GDP Growth

2.5% (2010)
-2.8% (2009)
-0.3% (2008)
1.8% (2007)
2.7% (2006)
3.4% (2005)
3.8% (2004)
2.8% (2003)
1.8% (2002)
0.9% (2001)
4.1% (2000)

data.worldbank.org...

AlphaHawk
reply to post by gardener

 

Because it doesn't affect us, we shouldn't care?

How many flight 370 threads have you started? It doesn't affect you, so why care?

How dare you assume it does not when it does. You could have said you DOUBT so and so, like I did. but instead, you PRESUME. For the record, yes, I said I DOUBT it affects, so stop putting words in my mouth!

Such is what's wrong with folks discussing whats wrong with the REST of the world =D

reply to post by john452


The article I linked states the outlook for the coming year.

While growth in the past is/was good, it seems the outlook is far less.

"The Central Bank of the Russian Federation appears to have abandoned its policy of increased currency flexibility and limited intervention in the foreign-exchange market. The Central Bank is now focused on stabilizing financial markets in light of the inflationary impact of the around 10% depreciation of the currency so far this year and the significant capital outflow, which we estimate at about $60 billion in the first quarter of 2014, similar to the level for the whole of 2013."
Like Danske Bank, Citi also recently slashed its 2014 Russia GDP growth forecast to 1.0% year over year from 2.6%.
In a note explaining the decision, Citi economist Ivan Tchakarov explained how Russian business investment and consumer spending were likely to suffer:

reply to post by liejunkie01


It's hard to debate about what will happen. When the figures are in I will be willing to discuss them but debating about what will happen in the future is not something I enjoy as I like to focus on facts and figures. Speculation can be fun but I'm not someone who will ever tell anyone they are wrong when it comes to future predictions. I could say the world will end tomorrow and not be wrong until tomorrow. Many nations are forecast to have a disappointing year this year but if anyone knew the future they would be a multi-billionaire from the stock market.

That said their predictions don't seem too far fetched as around 1.0-2.6% growth seems about right but it could potentially be much less than that. It's unlikely it will be more but as I said I'm only willing to speculate about this and in the end I don't know if I did I would make a ton of money.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Corruption is a human failure. If you want to get rid of corruption get rid of humans. Since the beginning of time the average citizen has been tricked into allowing these corrupt sociopaths to maintain leadership positions. And century after century the same corrupt sociopathic arseholes are in positions of wealth, power, and influence. Look throughout history. Tell me if you don't see the pattern.

And that leads to the quote "absolute power corrupts absolutely." But I disagree. I think those that are already corrupt sociopaths are bred by corrupt sociopathic families and are taught how to maintain their hold on the power. It's a legacy thing.

reply to post by john452


I agree,

But when Russia gets their credit rating downgraded and their GDP forecast slashed, it can't be a good thing.

After all i'm not an economy major. I just don't see how everyone is downplaying the fact that it looks like their economy will be weakened in the coming year.

I'm not trying to argue, i'm just trying to show that the outlook is grimm, not strong.

After all next week it could be that the predictions could turn a 180.

reply to post by liejunkie01


Sorry for the rant about future predictions. I often get annoyed by predictions from business news sources and then the inevitable "unexpected' economic news we always get. Government sources are even worse and often want to pat themselves on the back before they actually reduce costs of programs or deficits. If you follow economic news a lot you will probably understand.

Anyway I would agree it's unlikely they would have more growth than last year so the 1.0% figure you quoted sounds close to the mark to me. Conservative estimates are more often correct than hopeful ones when it comes to the economy.

On the other hand taking another look at those figures in the article downturns can often spark a rebound. Not that I would call it a downturn yet in terms of the actual economic growth figures as it has been less than a year since the economy started to slow at any significant rate and the economy is still in positive growth. It's really only the stock market and ruble moves that make it look like a downturn and that could largely be panic selling due to the political situation. Stock and currency markets are volatile and can often be more about sentiment than the fundamentals of an economy.

What is really devastating is long term stagnation and I don't see anything in those figures to suggest that will happen. In terms of the devalued ruble being a potential negative nations like Japan try to reduce the value of their currency because it's good for exports and the competitiveness of their exports as workers are paid in domestic currency. It also makes investment less expensive for anyone willing to overlook the perceived increased risk.

Most developed nations are currently trying to fight deflation (quantitative easing in the US is one method being used) so I don't agree inflation at the level it is currently at and a devalued ruble are negative factors. The main number of concern is the growth rate of the economy decreasing while inflation is staying around the same rate but the time frame where this is happening in the graph is too short to represent a trend.

In conclusion I have no idea what is going to happen but I would also be wary of what S&P says and other analysts for that matter. Remember not too long ago they were sued by the government in what was seen as retaliation to the US credit rating downgrade so it's likely they and others learned a lesson from that and won't want to deviate from the narrative being sold less they want to face more lawsuits.

money.cnn.com...

reply to post by liejunkie01


I don't know mate, these charts usually tell what they want to tell, maybe it's a matter of perspective. The way I see it, Russia has 3 main sources of income:

1. Internal market - Russia is very closed to the world.
2. Oil/Gas - Definitely something they won't have any trouble selling out.
3. Space and Military industry - Soyuz is a fine example, as for their military buyers, none of them seems bothered by the last troubles in Ukraine.

Also Russia has a lot of gold stored and holds about 160bi USD loaned to the US (credit cards)...

I think all of this is just too much talk from all sides... I think it's settled: Crimea now belongs to Russia, the only possible positive outcome I see is the world making them a deal: keep Crimea and don't attack mainland Ukraine.

Kind regards,

reply to post by liejunkie01


I don't know mate, these charts usually tell what they want to tell, maybe it's a matter of perspective. The way I see it, Russia has 3 main sources of income:

1. Internal market - Russia is very closed to the world.
2. Oil/Gas - Definitely something they won't have any trouble selling out.
3. Space and Military industry - Soyuz is a fine example, as for their military buyers, none of them seems bothered by the last troubles in Ukraine.

Also Russia has a lot of gold stored and holds about 160bi USD loaned to the US (credit cards)...

I think all of this is just too much talk from all sides... I think it's settled: Crimea now belongs to Russia, the only possible positive outcome I see is the world making them a deal: keep Crimea and don't attack mainland Ukraine.

Kind regards,

how can this be?

they have a 13% flat tax, the conservative standard! they should be booming.

Vast swaths of Russia are in poverty, much of Russia's infrastructure and utilities are in tatters

Looks like the Russia mafia are living the HIGH life

You talk of inequality and corruption in the West?

Give me a break lol

Much of the wests cost are for the welfare state, and most of the, are you guys sponging of a system you hate

Bugger of to Russia and be free with all that wealth yay


The stark realisation and looks on your faces when you get there will be priceless no doubt, you can talk all you want about impressive charts but sooner or later you'll realise there's a very good reason for Russia's low debt, and that's because the country resembles a lawless 3 world

Lucky for Putin, communism does not rely on a strong economy.

Oh wait, it's not luck at all.

Russian class breakdown

20% Upper Class
60% MIddle Class
20% Lower Class

Unemployment rate is the the lowest in the developed world.

They have extremely little external debt.

Standard of living is in an upward spiral.

Take off the blinders people, Russia in many ways is what many strive for the US to be economically.

gardener
How does the Russia economy affect ATSers?

I highly doubt the majority of us are suffering under the economy of... rUSsia =D

Given that a lot of people are criticizing the US government for how it has handled the Crimean crisis, the fact that the sanctions instituted so far have significantly affected Russia, and the fact that Russia had economic problems before this issue even, shows that Russia doesn't necessarily have the upper hand as a lot of punditeers, both professional and amateur, have been claiming.

Then there's the fact that ATS is for anyone on the interwebz; it is not just for self-centered 'Murikens. And even some 'Murikens might be interested in Russia's economic state.

If you're not interested in this matter, why did you look at this thread in the first place, let alone make a post? Go back underneath your bridge and stick to harassing billy goats.

Doesn't seem to hurt Putin any, he just built himself a 1 billion dollar palace. Of course, he'll have to invade a neighboring country every 6 years or so to sustain his lavish lifestyle.