Bramos is only got a frontal cross section of 0.26m², even with the fines is still about 1.3m². That assumes basic metal construction with no attempts
at stealth in the design.
That means the AEW planes will under ideal conditions detect the Bramos at ~150nm and these planes don't patrol much more than 50nm from the carrier.
Thats a warning of maybe 200nm or 340km. That gives you 7-8 minutes to react to the inbounds. If the missile is stealthy the detection range will be
less , maybe 200km and reaction time down to about 4 minutes.
That means to have any chance to intercept these inbounds, CAP has to be within ~100km or less [including range of AAM]. How many CAP would be flying
within that radius at one time? Each carrier has only 24 fighters of which at most 1/2 would be airborn at anygiven time. So thats 12 fighters each
carring a pair of long range AAMs. Maybe 48 AAMs under ideal circumstance of two carriers in the battlegroup.
Once any missiles penetrate the fighter cap they have to overcome ship based area airdefence with rapid multi hit capability [IE Aegis]. Each carrier
should have 4 Ageis destroyers with upto 60 Standard 2 or 3 SAMs, capable of launching and tracking upto 8 SAMs in each wave...IE 32 SAMs for the
escorts of each carrier. Since SAM speed is equal to anti ship missile speed first intercept could occur at maybe 90km under ideal circumstances. with
second wave intercepts occuring at ~ 35km and final wave at ~ 6km. Short range SAM may have a volley at that distance as well but that will be it,
since CIWS are useless against such a high velocity missile....even if they hit , the debrie field will shred the target knocking it out of the war
So we have upto 48 x AAM in the outer layer and 64 x SAMs in each of the 1st , 2nd , 3rd Standard waves and one final close in wave.So against that
back drop on Antishipping missile has zero chance of getting through to hit the CVN or any ship in the taskforce.
But these are under ideal circumstances, which we all know never happen in real war time. First off everything hinges on the ability of the AWACS
plane to operate and detect. Just the act of attacking the AEW first may cancel it out. WHy because the plane will have to undergo evasive maneuver
while the CAP move to intercept the attacking fighters. If coordinated right ,that moves them away from a planed ASM attack area and uses up some or
all of the CAP missiles/sorties ,since if nothing else the fighters would have to break of to refuel [air to air]. So at most 1/2 the CAP jets would
be dispatched to intercept the inbounds reducing the AAMs by two. DO this again with a second inbound fight and the number of CAP AAMs down to 1/4 etc
This also presupposes the initial wave of attacking jets don't carry the latest russian designed anti AEW missiles, which could very well shut the
AWACS down all together resulting in the same loss of detection, without wasting jets on diversionary attacks.
But that supposes you have unlimited jets to throw away in such diversionary attacks. So don't wast your efforts and send decoys instead. Given
enough decoys you would overwhelm the airdefence and prevent the AEW from doing anything other than alerting the battle group they are under attack.
Cessnas will reflectors will do the trick or any one of a number of 'civilian' planes.
With the CAP out of the way, the 1st wave SAM volleys are out too since they rely on over the horizon handoff targets from the AEW and LOS limits SAM
to a LOS of about 35km against a low flying missile. That means 1st wave is at 10-15km and there is only time for another wave of close in SAMs.
But even this may be optimistic cause battlegroup area defence can be defeated by other means....numerous cheap fast patrol boats disguised as
fisheries trawlers etc,break cover and dash in on the battle group forcing to split the defence between surface and air threats. Throw in a maurading
SSK or two and that defence is split three ways. Such SSKs are deadly in exercises, We've all read about the Norwegian SSK sinking the RN carrier
battle group in a simulated battle off the coast of Norway ,and then there is the Austrailan collins SSK that sunk the US CVN in an exercise
Against that back drop a wave of a couple of dozen Brahmos could very well overwhelm a carrier group and putting it out of a war.
Think its impossible, I gather thats roughly what General Ripper did in that Millinum challenge exercise back in 2002...which is why they said he