Beijing-bound MAS plane carrying 239 people missing as of 20 mins ago.

Why MH370 could not have flown West



This is the ‘Burst Frequency Offset Analysis’ graph as issued by the Malaysian Government on 24th March.

It actually disproves what the Malaysian Government has been telling us that the aircraft turned west at IGARI.



When the aircraft was at the gate at KL airport at 16:30, the Burst Frequency Offset ("BFO") was 87 Hz, and at that time the LOS speed (due solely to the satellite motion) was about plus 0.021 km/sec. At take-off at 16:41 the BFO was about 125 Hz, so this can be taken as the datum point, or neutral point between an aircraft approaching or receding from the satellite.

If you look at the ‘Burst Frequency Offset Analysis’ graph along the left margin you will note the frequency. The malaysian authorities have misread or misinterpreted the data because we know and it is verifiable from transponder returns that MH370 flew east up until 17:27 UTC.

There is an anomaly in the scale that the frequency is reversed, but the Malaysian Authorities did not understand this and interpreted it as an aircraft flying west.

Normally the frequency would increase for an aircraft flying towards the INMARSAT satellite and reduce for an aircraft flying away, however due to signal processing issues the signal can also be inverted. Thus if the frequency continued increasing after take off we know that it was a signal processing error and can be confident to read the data in reverse order.

Look at this chart again:



If MH370 turned west at 17:19 UTC as Malaysia tells us, then on the bottom time scale at the appropriate time you would see the frequency abruptly reverse indicating a turn west, but it does not.

Malaysian Authorities realised their error some time after releasing this graph and then tried to suggest it turned west at 17:08 UTC, but the aircraft transponder continued to show the aircraft flying north east on ATC radar until if flew out of coverage area at 17:27 UTC.

What the Doppler offset actually shows us after that is that it was not registered flying back towards the INMARSAT satellite until 18:25 UTC. Vietnamese radar tracked MH370 until 18:40 so where exactly was it all that time, since Vietnam does not have radar coverage between IGARI and Ca Mau peninsula? Vietnamese searchers immediately began their search for MH370 off the Mekong Delta coast.



For one hour and fifteen minutes between the ping at 17:08 UTC and 18:25 UTC MH370 flew away from the satellite eastwards. At 17:26 UTC we know from the transponder that it made a turn east 040 towards BITOD. It was flying at 471 knots which suggests if it flew this direction the whole time it could have covered 588nm before turning towards the Southern Indian Ocean.

Even being somewhat generous and suggesting it turned around half way between these handshake pings that still means it flew northeast for 37 minutes after IGARI before turning back.

That emphatically proves MH370 did not and could not have flown to the Straits of Malacca when RMAF radar at Butterworth were tracking an unidentified target in the Straits.

This is just one more piece of evidence that the Malaysian Government persistently misleads us.

judydawg

FITFLOL I feel like your picture.

NOTE: Mods, please don't yell at me for thread drift or something

Judy... what the heck is FITF and then LOL or FITFLOL?!
I'm not down with the cool kids... no idea. I am lost. Help a sister out, yo.

Righto,

Here's my conjecture, trying to word carefully since the Malaysian government is looking at litigation at various MSM organisations.

Going with what Sy said before, mmkay, perhaps MH370 really did continue on the path or at least in general area where it was supposed to go.

What has North Korea been doing lately? Anyone? Bueller?

And the thing between China and North Korea?

All I am trying to highlight is the sealed evidence of the flight cargo manifesto, the shift of assets to aussie waters (btw china's assets sent here are small fry compared to what they have overall), 3 plus weeks out here and not a skerrick thus far, the idea of china up to 50 satellites deployed in future, their recent lunar landing, and sweet Nancy Reagan, the issues Russia is facing and the uprising of Chinese Muslims... I am trying my hardest not to revert to Cold War of thinking... but I blame Arthur C Clarke and George Orwell... amongst others. It's not really governments I am thinking, there's a seperate entity that holds the power, namely the military...or those who hold the finances for said. I don't know, now I am feeling tin foil hat.

reply to post by sy.gunson



Well you found the plane, now who has the most to lose if the plane is found, and why did it crash?

*Malaysia as a country is broke

*Malaysia Airlines has had problems form the start and now have investor's (need to find them)


*To pay off the locals wouldn't be a problem as we see it because of their way of life, BUT the 20 Chinese know what a payoff should be and lawyers (out of control for a big payday)

*Boeing can't even imagine how much money they have.

*Roalys Roce unlimited funds

I know I have left out some. Will add when I find them.

Then we have 200+ families that will be heartbroken for life, how can anything fix that? They can't. My prayers for the family and loved ones. Sad that the families have suffered this tragedy for unknown reasons for weeks now.


__________________________________________________________________
What a wicked web we weave in our lives.

reply to post by auroraaus



LOL= laughing out loud

FITFLOL= falling in the floor laughing out loud

and that is ALL I know about internet slang.

I am really not smart enough to even post on this site but I learn a lot.

reply to post by judydawg


KK wait wait

why IN the floor?? Are you some sort on event horizon/philadelphia whosiwotsit???

On?

Falling ON the floor laughing out loud?

Not trying to be pedantic or Abed or whatevs. PS: if that avatar is you (Don't yell at me mods!!), you're a fox xx

I couldn't find where the facts were that supported to flight to Vampi, Gival and Igrex way points. The Malaysian radar seemed possibly a cover up to prevent them from looking bad.

I have the most faith in the Inmarsat data showing it headed south. I could have well just flown south from Igari as Sy proposed a while back.

Where would the next satellite east have picked up the plane if it continued east? I suspect it has been checked but were won't hear much of that point.

auroraaus
reply to post by judydawg

 

KK wait wait

why IN the floor?? Are you some sort on event horizon/philadelphia whosiwotsit???

On?

Falling ON the floor laughing out loud?

Not trying to be pedantic or Abed or whatevs. PS: if that avatar is you (Don't yell at me mods!!), you're a fox

xx

------------------
Have you ever laughed so hard you doubled over and fell in the floor, kids do it all the time.

Thank you BUT that Picture was just a good day. I am a long time old happy happy happy married women and grandmother taking care of my 82 year old parents with too much time on my hands not a fox, For some reason the pic wont go back up????? I guess the mods don't like it, I was just trying to let people know I am harmless. I have never posted much but the airplane thing caught my attention. I love mysteries and this is a real life one.

An avatar! What is that? Some wild thing I think fit's me. Whatever!

I think the original was ROTFLMAO

sy.gunson
Look at this chart again:

If MH370 turned west at 17:19 UTC as Malaysia tells us, then on the bottom time scale at the appropriate time you would see the frequency abruptly reverse indicating a turn west, but it does not...

This is just one more piece of evidence that the Malaysian Government persistently misleads us.

I tend to agree that the Malaysian government isn't being straight with us, however I think your analysis is missing something. Thanks for posting that graph...where did you get it? Do you also have the ping time delay graph? Inmarsat talked about ping time delays too and I think we need to look at both ping time delays and frequency offsets. If it started flying west at 17:19, then the ping time delay for the ping at 18:25 should be shorter than the one at 17:08. We need to see if that is or is not the case.

Also I'm not sure why you say "at the appropriate time you would see the frequency abruptly reverse". I suspect your use of the word "abrupt" identifies the problem with your analysis, because it infers a continuous data stream. The presentation style of this data shows dots connected by a line, and this normally means that the dots are data points. Since there are no data points immediately prior to or after 17:19, this means that the graph couldn't possibly show anything happening "abruptly" at 17:19, no matter what the plane actually did at 17:19.

Also where did you get this information about the signal processing inversion? How do you know if the inversion is consistent (or inconsistent) for the entire flight? If it's inconsistent, couldn't it switch?

sy.gunson
reply to post by OatDelphi

 

Your preposition which I responded to was this...

"I do not believe they ever stated that it was a woman on the phone 8 mins prior to take-off. "

Which I have disproved... to which you respond by trying to shift the Goal posts

You need to have a memory check... because all of this started on your base-less comment.

sy-gunson
Another point. Malaysian authorities revealed the Captain, Zahri Ahmad received phone call just before departure from an untraceable cell phone and the voice was that of a woman.

Does it occur to anybody how did they know it was the voice of a woman unless they were already evesdropping his phone calls before the disaster ever happened and were already trying to construct a case against the pilot?

I then replied because I knew you were wrong...

I do not believe they ever stated that it was a woman on the phone 8 mins prior to take-off.

However, reports did say that the fake-id used to purchase the pre-paid phone was a falsified women's name.

Now I'm not switching goal post and you haven't dis-proven anything. You made a statement about what the Malaysian officials had "revealed", then you tried to use speculative articles to back up your statement.

Had you actually researched or at least fully read even one of the articles you posted, you would have seen that Malaysian Officials don't even recognize the phone call took place and that Malaysian officials have never once stated or "revealed" a woman called or was called by the pilot. In fact every time they are asked about the Sun's original phone-call article or the subsequent ones thereafter, they deny the phone call ever took place.

So your comments about a women's voice are completely un-founded and are weened from ridiculous articles that can't even figure whether this supposed call came to or from the pilots phone.

Now go try and backtrack your statements, I'll be waiting...

reply to post by auroraaus


Oh, Sheesha!

You're off-line...

Shep Smith is about to speak on his news programming about "tropical fruits & the missing flight"...

Due to air @ 3 pm Est...on Fox News in the states...

The mangosteens? LOL!

I'll update if I'm able...

ETA: He did speak about the mangosteens as cargo, ha,ha...he hadn't even heard of them until today! Your attention hasn't gone unnoticed...lol...

However, his position was that some have speculated about a bomb that had been planted in between the cargo's massive amounts of the fruit???

Also, doomy reports from an on-site AUS reporter doing searches from the Indian Ocean, stating basically that all hope has been lost in finding anything there...well, derp! MSM - a thin line between my love & hate...

auroraaus
Righto,

Here's my conjecture, trying to word carefully since the Malaysian government is looking at litigation at various MSM organisations.

Going with what Sy said before, mmkay, perhaps MH370 really did continue on the path or at least in general area where it was supposed to go.

What has North Korea been doing lately? Anyone? Bueller?

And the thing between China and North Korea?

You're on the wrong track sorry because the INMARSAT signal doppler shift does show it turned west again but after flying Northeast much longer than acknowledged. I will add a further post to make it clearer for all.

Arbitrageur

sy.gunson
Look at this chart again:

If MH370 turned west at 17:19 UTC as Malaysia tells us, then on the bottom time scale at the appropriate time you would see the frequency abruptly reverse indicating a turn west, but it does not...

This is just one more piece of evidence that the Malaysian Government persistently misleads us.

I tend to agree that the Malaysian government isn't being straight with us, however I think your analysis is missing something. Thanks for posting that graph...where did you get it? Do you also have the ping time delay graph? Inmarsat talked about ping time delays too and I think we need to look at both ping time delays and frequency offsets. If it started flying west at 17:19, then the ping time delay for the ping at 18:25 should be shorter than the one at 17:08. We need to see if that is or is not the case.

The signal return at 18:25 UTC is still east of Longitude 101.33E (Kuala Lumpur).

Also I'm not sure why you say "at the appropriate time you would see the frequency abruptly reverse". I suspect your use of the word "abrupt" identifies the problem with your analysis, because it infers a continuous data stream. The presentation style of this data shows dots connected by a line, and this normally means that the dots are data points. Since there are no data points immediately prior to or after 17:19, this means that the graph couldn't possibly show anything happening "abruptly" at 17:19, no matter what the plane actually did at 17:19.

Indeed there was an abrupt course change described on the graph from 18:25 UTC.

Also where did you get this information about the signal processing inversion? How do you know if the inversion is consistent (or inconsistent) for the entire flight? If it's inconsistent, couldn't it switch?

edit on 2-4-2014 by Arbitrageur because: clarification

I didn't get inverting the signal from anywhere, it is basic physics 101. Doppler shift is the same as ping time delay.

Doppler shift principles

When INMARSAT looks down at the world from it's geosynchronous orbit if an aircraft is flying away from it then the return signal is slower, thus a ping delay.

If the aircraft flies toward the satellite then the ping comes back faster than expected. You can measure slight variations in signal frequency (Burst Offset) and plot these to a graph. The UK AAIB did plot it to a graph for the Malaysians.

For whatever reasons, perhaps to make the data conform to Malaysian expectations for data to conform to their beliefs about an aircraft in the Straits of Malacca, or even because the signal processing in the satellite inverted the signal quite innocently, the graph shows Doppler shift data inverted.

For example at 17:19 UTC at last radio contact, the aircraft was still under radar surveilance and known to be flying northeast (025 degrees). At 17:26 radar returns showed it turned further east (040 degrees) therefore for that portion of the flight the Doppler shift should show reducing frequency, not increasing.

The Burst Offset Frequency chart released by Malaysian officials is inconsistent with the known position and the laws of physics and can only be explained by inverting the frequency offset. This gives rise to a reasonable question whether Malaysian officials deliberately manipulated data to suit their fabrications, or whether they simply could not understand the data?

For whatever reason the Malaysians chose to publish the data inverted so that it showed the aircraft flying west to claim MH370 flew across the Malay peninsula and disappeared west out of the Northern Straits of Malacca.

But we know factually because the aircraft was measured by radar transponder returns flying east at 17:27 UTC that the Malaysians have either misinterpreted data, or falsified claims.

Thus the data is not consistent with an aircraft flown west from IGARI.

roadgravel
I couldn't find where the facts were that supported to flight to Vampi, Gival and Igrex way points. The Malaysian radar seemed possibly a cover up to prevent them from looking bad.

I have the most faith in the Inmarsat data showing it headed south. I could have well just flown south from Igari as Sy proposed a while back.

Where would the next satellite east have picked up the plane if it continued east? I suspect it has been checked but were won't hear much of that point.

The data from INMARSAT suggests it flew North east for approximately another 37 minutes then turned back.



This infers it either flew north from BITOD to BIBAN on the Ca Mau Peninsula or else kept on heading 040 towards a small island called Con Son which has a VOR radio navigation beacon. If it flew to Con Son then it is entirely plausible the oil rig worker saw the aircraft on fire.

reply to post by BurningSpearess


Yes, the police apparently are investigating the load of fruit, who picked them, shipped them etc.

I hope beyond hope they looked into how the mangosteens were grown (if C02 was used to to force them to grow quicker...look into exploding fruit in asia!), how they were packed, how they were stored (direct heat or fridge) and what the effusion rate of C02 was from 4 tonnes of mangosteens.

This, is my serious face

Hide a bomb? Naw, the fruit COULD be the bomb.

I still think that the Chinese report of a seizemic event and the various eyewitness reports need to be investigated and explained.

I really dont believe that there are all these things happening around the same time and they are not connected with the disappearance of MH370 at all. These are aspects of the whole incident which need to be explained so that everything which has occurred fits into the puzzle and they are relatively easy for the relevant authorities to find out about. However, I suppose that if the unidentified jets are military or smugglers or UFOs then we will never know and neither will the investigation board. If the eyewitnesses are media-seeking or have just misinterpreted what they saw then we can put those to bed as explained and not anything to do with the investigation.

To get a real geographical grasp you have to invert the original data like so:



But I would suggest the frequency scaling does not invert accurately either so you have to compress or squeeze the height of the data up until 19:40 UTC (scaling) to get a correct frequency after inverting it.

This however gives a true appreciation that it flew east until at least 17:50 UTC, then turned west.

About 19:10 UTC it crossed Longitude 101.33E again this time flying west.

qmantoo
I still think that the Chinese report of a seizemic event and the various eyewitness reports need to be investigated and explained.

I really dont believe that there are all these things happening around the same time and they are not connected with the disappearance of MH370 at all. These are aspects of the whole incident which need to be explained so that everything which has occurred fits into the puzzle and they are relatively easy for the relevant authorities to find out about. However, I suppose that if the unidentified jets are military or smugglers or UFOs then we will never know and neither will the investigation board. If the eyewitnesses are media-seeking or have just misinterpreted what they saw then we can put those to bed as explained and not anything to do with the investigation.

Malaysian Authorities are always complaining about the Singapore Air Force making unauthorised incusions into Malaysian airspace. My honest belief is that the unidentified target flying low through the Straits was actually Singapore Air Force or indian Air Force.

Hi Guys,

I have followed this thread from the beginning but have not yet added anything...

I was watching traffic coming in and out of Perth on fr24, I was suprised when I noticed a plane callsign RSCU74.
On the info it said American navy, I figured with the callsign RSCU74 it was a plane searching for mh370.

I left my desk for a moment and when I came back the plane was no longer on the screen...cant see it anywhere.
I have managed to view planes flying to the Maldives along the same path almost and now I wonder
why could I see it now I cant?
are they keeping the search area secret?
has the plane crashed?
was it a mistake them broadcasting the callsign in the first place?
and finally if it was intentional to broadcast why did I see just one search plane if lots of countries are searching?

ETA..2 Singapore airforce planes appear to be going in circles round a small airport to the North of Perth, maybe its busier than it first appeared. No sign of others near the apparent search area in the ocean though

I think this story has taken over my life
keep up the good work ATSers.