Beijing-bound MAS plane carrying 239 people missing as of 20 mins ago.

reply to post by puntito


FBI joins the hunt www.usatoday.com...

A couple of thoughts, while they're still potentially relevant...

Northern tip of Malacca Strait to Maldives - as the crow flies ... ~1,700 miles

Supposedly, the plane was picked up by Malaysian military radar crossing over the Peninsular Malaysia into the Strait of Malacca at around 2:15 a.m.

1,700 miles (as the crow flies) would be transitted in 3.04 hours, at Typical Cruising Speed (560 mph - @ 35,000' feet)
1,700 miles (as the crow flies) would be transitted in 2.88 hours, at Maximum Speed (590 mph - @ 35,000' feet)

The spokesman for the Malaysian government said that the "Maldives" reports had nothing to do with this flight.
Maybe that is correct.
If, though, it is not correct - the witness testimony would have placed the plane in the vicinity approximately 4 hours (if there is a time-zone differential that was not factored in, this number would be off) after it was noted crossing the Peninsular Malaysia into the Strait of Malacca...
And, if the flight path was somewhat erratic, for purposes of avoiding known radar/tracking facilities - I see no reason it could not have gotten this far on the fuel available and at typical cruising speed.

..........

Many have postulated, and are postulating that "the climb to 45,000 feet" (which, of course, is not verified) would/might have been intended to render the passengers unconscious, or even, to kill them.
Under some scenarios, this might be a workable theory.
I have some problems with it, though.
Unless you have a virtual army of helpers...once landed... Dragging 230+ dead bodies off the plane...would be a massive chore (even with a virtual army of helpers).
Then, disposing of, or depositing/piling them somewhere...away from said location...?
Even the notion of attempting to 'dump' them as you flew over the open ocean, would be a massive task.
Much less work to keep them alive through the flight...so they can walk themselves off the plane, once landed.

research100
reply to post by puntito

 

FBI joins the hunt www.usatoday.com...

Forensic analysis of the hard drives of the pilot and the co-pilot. And speculation of the fight simulator too.

Only copies of the hard drives though...which is weird and a pretty significant factor because copies are not as valuable.

Here's a video report: www.msnbc.com...

They saying they've reduced the search zone to the south Indian Ocean...mostly searching by the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand.

reply to post by qmantoo


My response regarding hidden fuel predates liteonit6969. I was the first one to post the possibility that cargo was fuel. Sorry I had to stand up for myself, but I am no ATS milquetoast.

Please make an attempt to quote your sources correctly in the future.

reply to post by WanDash


Wandash how do you know how much fuel was onboard? nothing has been said formally, to my knowledge.

option158
reply to post by WanDash

 

Wandash how do you know how much fuel was onboard? nothing has been said formally, to my knowledge.

Good point.
I have, of course, been reading & reading, as, I'm sure, have you... It would have been from earlier in this thread. I believe it was stated that this is normal operating procedure for flights going to the particular destination in China, as well as some 'official' kind of statement that regarded the plane being loaded with enough fuel to fly 7.5 (or so) hours.
If you wish, I will go back through the thread to try and locate those references.
On the other hand - I certainly was not there, and didn't load the fuel...so, I am only taking others' word for this, as I am that a 777 is missing.
Regards.

They just said on news that the US know more than they're letting on and they're working with Australia as they believe the plane went down in the ocean about 2400 miles SW off the coast of Perth.
They will be concentrating the search there

WanDash
A couple of thoughts, while they're still potentially relevant...

Northern tip of Malacca Strait to Maldives - as the crow flies ... ~1,700 miles

Supposedly, the plane was picked up by Malaysian military radar crossing over the Peninsular Malaysia into the Strait of Malacca at around 2:15 a.m.

1,700 miles (as the crow flies) would be transitted in 3.04 hours, at Typical Cruising Speed (560 mph - @ 35,000' feet)
1,700 miles (as the crow flies) would be transitted in 2.88 hours, at Maximum Speed (590 mph - @ 35,000' feet)

The spokesman for the Malaysian government said that the "Maldives" reports had nothing to do with this flight.
Maybe that is correct.
If, though, it is not correct - the witness testimony would have placed the plane in the vicinity approximately 4 hours (if there is a time-zone differential that was not factored in, this number would be off) after it was noted crossing the Peninsular Malaysia into the Strait of Malacca...
And, if the flight path was somewhat erratic, for purposes of avoiding known radar/tracking facilities - I see no reason it could not have gotten this far on the fuel available and at typical cruising speed.

..........

The aircraft sighting in the Maldives has been dismissed by that county's government because they did not see it on their radar however it appears that the last flight departure was at 2.20am and the first arrival was just before 9am therefore the radar was turned off when this sighting was made?

How then can both the Maldives and Malaysian Governments dismiss as irrelevant this sighting?
If radar was turned off when it flew over then the Maldives government can't dismiss the sighting.

The aircraft was not behaving typically therefore you can't quote typical cruise speed or range. Economical cruise speed quoted for jet airliners is based upon parameters for gross weight and altitudes flown.

When you fly beneath 30,000ft fuel consumption rises. If MH370 was flying low over fishermen off the east coast of malaysia and also low over the Maldives, but last seen leaving the Straits of Malacca climbing at 29,500ft, then obviously it was going up and down like a porpoise and unlikely under any deliberate control.

You could quite easily knock an hour off any normal range estimates and the satellite responses atre the only guide to endurance (but not to range)

reply to post by stargatetravels


This might be a credible claim since so much effort has been made to survey a small area of ocean there.

It could be that Over The Horizon Radar (OTHR) known as Jindalee/JORN saw a radar return there. It would be helpful if the Australian authorities said something useful about this?

For example has DSRV-1 or NR-1 been deployed underwater in the same search area?

If we assume it flew over the Maldives was it tracked by Diego Garcia radar flying to the search zone which Australia is now checking?

TomNod just sent out emails saying they have new photos of the Indian Ocean areas and are asking those who have searched other areas to search the new photos.

civpop
This is a good read.

am a 777 pilot and have waded painfully through all these pages.

To be pedantic the 777 transponder cannot be turned off in flight from the flight deck. ie depowered with digits blank. There is no off switch, however there is a standby position which will stop it radiating. You would have to pull the circuit breaker to totally depower it. In flight on the 777 you never go to standby if you are given a change of squawk.

The suggestion of taking off with main tank fuel pumps off is not a valid possibility. The electronic checklist would not tick itself off, and there are clues on the eicas screen. If you did take off like that and the engines failed in cruise you would get low pressure fuel warnings first and your radios would still be working normally.

Goes on further about 45,000 ft altitude etc, worth a read.

Post 6065 page 304

Link PPRUNE

Except that the height is calculated by trigonometry from primary radar returns at RMAF Butterworth and this pilot is openly talking about flying a virtual simulator.

The reason why is because other than a test pilot few pilots have taken a B772 to such altitudes and any airline pilot doing so would lose their job.

Much earlier in PPruNe it was stated that the Malaysian B777 did not have the modern push button keypad transponder which you refer to, so you are just selectively quoting to suit your own purpose.

rockflier
TomNod just sent out emails saying they have new photos of the Indian Ocean areas and are asking those who have searched other areas to search the new photos.

If the NSA can't do it with their software then a find is probably pretty low. But then a blind pig does find an acorn every now and then. I applaud those on the net giving it a go.

This is standard performance assuming flight at 35,000ft:

sy.gunson
...
The aircraft sighting in the Maldives has been dismissed by that county's government because they did not see it on their radar however it appears that the last flight departure was at 2.20am and the first arrival was just before 9am therefore the radar was turned off when this sighting was made?

How then can both the Maldives and Malaysian Governments dismiss as irrelevant this sighting?
If radar was turned off when it flew over then the Maldives government can't dismiss the sighting.

The aircraft was not behaving typically therefore you can't quote typical cruise speed or range. Economical cruise speed quoted for jet airliners is based upon parameters for gross weight and altitudes flown.

When you fly beneath 30,000ft fuel consumption rises. If MH370 was flying low over fishermen off the east coast of malaysia and also low over the Maldives, but last seen leaving the Straits of Malacca climbing at 29,500ft, then obviously it was going up and down like a porpoise and unlikely under any deliberate control.

You could quite easily knock an hour off any normal range estimates and the satellite responses atre the only guide to endurance (but not to range)

Thanks sy.gunson
I was not attempting to claim that the craft flew any/half/or-the-entire distance at Typical Cruising Speed...
But rather that - because we do not know, and can only speculate (based on which set/s of facts we choose to give more/less credibility), I believe these (roundabout) numbers show that the window-of-opportunity appears to have been open, for the Maldives reports to hold up on at least one (if not more) side of the equation.
I also assumed that erratic flying (whether ascents & descents or large turns) would cause the fuel efficiency factor to dwindle.

That being said - I appreciate the many insights.

reply to post by stargatetravels


Go to google earth draw a measurement from perth to DG about 2600nm........then take the witness sighting and direction (reportedly) flew from the maldives , and see where you end up....?/? DG !! the USA know more all right!! Noone knows why it was flown there but that is where the search should be taking place ... around DG!! for whatever reason it was flown there I believe that it was shot down due to becoming a threat to DG, what isn't the USA/UK telling us ..... TONY start searching DG area NOW ...DG is 1600nm in a straight line from last report radar contact... or about 2100nm if you take the scenic route over the maldives.

Start listening to the Witnesses the locals they know what is right and what is out of place.....

this S&R effort has been a complete balls up...Governments not willing to help each other out for the sake of possible saving lives is a complete and utter slap in the face for humanity, the worst side of human nature has been seen though out this whole disaster..... if this is gets pinned on DG then its really going to unset china and co.....

Geeezzz PPL!

The guys on pprune forum said that it is often standard procedure to fill up with fuel for the return journey from China. This may be the reason why it is not officially confirmed how much fuel was on board due to having to explain why...

The extra cargo should be what we focus on and find out about. Are there any Malays on here and are there any local forums where this kind of infomation may be available? We need some folks who work at the airport or we need a Malay journalist to go and ask the right people the right questions. Where are the investagative journalists when you need them?

Speculated cargo contents include other types of food/rations or some kind of very valuable resource like gold. However it would have to be 45-ish passengers-plus-baggage worth of weight.

Maybe we could find out if it is economically viable to transport mangosteens to China in a passenger plane. As far as I know, they are not THAT expensive here, so they would not be really worth the bother and not make much profit for whoever is transporting them. There is also no shortage of mangosteens at the moment in the local supermarkets, so why would they be transporting them this way?

Apologies for not quoting the correct source.

The fox news article/video with Lieutenant General Tom McInerney is interesting and I agree seems to point to Pakistan. Both Pakistan and China must have known where this plane was going to if they have been monitoring the airwaves as I do not think the hijackers would have completely stopped comms with their destination (as Col McKinerney said)

The FBI is probably involved because they want to find terrorist cells in the US or anyone who knows what is going on and what the plane will be used for. Obama making it a 'top priority' would be to find out where the target will be. Personally, I am not sure it would be Israel, so I think they are being a little paranoid, but who knows yet.

General Tom McInerney stated he thinks the plane is in Pakistan & Megan Kelly reported that there is a leak from Boeing that Boeing knows the plane is in Pakistan.

Fmr. Gen. Doubles Down on Claim Malaysian Plane Could Be in Pakistan to Be Used for Terror

I've avoided commenting, but have been captured by this tragedy like most.
I said the Australians will find it, and by todays report of the narrowed down search area, sadly I may have been right, but only time will tell.
So sad.

American and British aviation officials have refined satellite signals from the missing Malaysia Flight 370 and created two possible flight paths that dramatically narrow the scope of the search to an area off the coast of Australia.

The two possible paths have the plane heading toward the South Pole and ending, experts believe, off of Australia.

U.S. officials familiar with the investigation tell ABC News that the hourly satellite pings from the jet had yielded far more clues than expected, enabling the focus of the search to be cut in half - from an area roughly the size of Texas to that of Arizona.

Calculations by UK and US experts had now been handed over to the Australians to help with the search.

abcnews.go.com...

Just heard this on CNN:
"India to widen search for missing Malaysian plane; China wants to scan Indian waters."
Source:
timesofindia.indiatimes.com...< br />
Update: "Broken Pieces of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 Suspected to Be Found at Indian Coast."

"Fishermen found what appears to be wreckage Kutta Gouduru Beach in south coastal Andhra Pradesh, a South Indian state. The fishermen then informed the police who suspected that the "broken pieces" could be the remaining of MH370 which might have crashed either into the Bay of Bengal or into the Indian Ocean."

au.ibtimes.com...

reply to post by drwill


I suppose Fisherman would be better determiners of "unusual" debris than normal beach combers. I'm surprised that none of the intensive satellite scans or search parties came across these pieces when they were still floating in the ocean, however.