reply to post by buni11687
According to one ATS poster in the near future only the rich can get high paying jobs like engineering due to rising costs of getting an engineering
major or other STEM fields.
edit on 7-3-2014 by starwarsisreal because: (no reason given)
Holy smokes, I think I just got mentioned, did you mean me?
More so than this, i actually predict that the current number of jobs will reduce as technology advance's - How many jobs have already been lost due
to automated services? No doubt that other fields of jobs will be created but you will need to be skilled in order to have them and my inkling is that
kids from comfortable middle-class families will be the first in line.
Capitalism just cannot sustain a fair economic society. Time for people to wake up.
You point summarizes my theory which I have posted before on ATS, here it is in a nutshell
Keeping up with the basics in terms of education and on-the-job work skills won’t be enough for jobs requiring future tech, labor market,
skill-sets. The poor and even the middle class (not the upper middle class) will simply NOT be able to keep up with the skill demands for future
employment, REQUIRED CERTIFICATIONS, STATE LICENSING, etc, while earning wages AND keeping a roof over their heads. In the future these very high
costs skills needed to stay “relevant” in ALL labor markets will only be affordable to the rich, or VERY far forward thinking middle class
families, willing to sacrifice everything financially to keep their offspring competitive in the larger job market.
I will begin with the usual assertion I hear in regards to the impact of these soon to be real “future-tech jobs”, which contrary to beliefs of
some, includes the trades and related proprietary tech that will not be repairable, only "replaceable by a certified/licensed tech".
“Someone has to get paid to fix the robots!”
I often hear this above noted rebuttal to mass automation in the workplace, with big business being hell bent on replacing living workers with
machines, BUT it misses a subtle point that ONLY the children of the wealthy will have the opportunity to become TRUE experts in such fields. Let me
clarify, through the prior 20th century, a poor kid who studied hard could become a lawyer, accountant, even a doctor sometimes with the right
combination of hard work, savings, scholarships, family support, etc or simply went into the trades and learned on the job with pay. HOWEVER, in
engineering and technician curriculum’s today, times are changing to favor kids whom have access to expensive software and hardware to
“experiment” with and “practice” on before entering college or a particular training program. So when they finally get to college or their
apprenticeship, those whom have had lots of free time to “play” with robotics and programming outside of class WILL CERTAINLY outpace their less
privileged peer who flips burgers part-time to pay rent and school expenses.
Many people generally do not bother to ask themselves, would future robotics consulting companies prefer to hire low work experienced graduates, whom
have demonstrated HANDS-ON, non-professional robotics experience in the form of a “hobby portfolio”; OR a graduate with no “hobby portfolio”
experience, whom worked hard to graduate with a difficult major, but didn’t have as much free time to develop skills specifically related to their
major and have a long list of work experience, flipping burgers, unrelated to their major? I’m seeing this already happening in many different
engineering fields where the young workers being hired today are from wealthy families and great colleges, while at the same time being trained by
older folks whom were necessarily not as privileged in their youth, but got through school the hard, 20th century way and were trained on the job,
while paid, over long periods of time. Which certainly is no longer an option in 2014 and on because companies would prefer to churn experienced staff
rather than train fresh graduates in-house.
Before 1990, 40% of teenagers had part-time jobs while in school. This is a relevant statistic because today only 20% of teenagers in school have
part-time jobs. Teens at one time did make up a sizable portion of the workforce and such changes in employment practices.
Although not my primary point, I do think there is plenty of evidence that teens today do not have the opportunity to get part-time jobs, BUT the
wealthy ones are beginning to develop advanced skill-sets that COULD be MORE helpful in their future adult careers than say “working at a taco stand
after school”. Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg are very good EARLY examples of people who made use of their free time and access to money, without
laboring for pay, to develop specialized skills that could not be learned at a MINDLESS part-time job or even in formal schooling. In the end they
leveraged that free time learning into long term careers.
Here is a modern example of a company with a big contract to fill and absolutely no "will" to increase wages to attract experience personnel, nor
the desire to train inexperienced ones the job. Instead they put out a story on the web bellyaching:
In the link below this paragraph I have posted an example of what I believe to be a young person from a well off family who majored in robotics at
USC, whom doesn’t appear to have had an unrelated part-time job to her major, while in college, possibly had lots time to “experiment” with the
technology in her spare time, got a masters degree back to back to the bachelors AND at the end of the day got a job offer at a University sponsored
dinner party for robotics majors. NOBODY I went to college with EVER got a job offer at a university sponsored dinner party, I’m sure many Ivy
league and top 10 school graduates do however. My point being, these future “robot repair jobs” are going to require smart kids with desire to
advance, that went to good schools, had lots of spare time and money to play with the tech outside of school AND got their jobs offered at dinner
parties, some of which will be non-paying internships at first. These jobs will not be gotten through sending out blind jobs applications or web job
boards, as was done in the 20th century. Basically what this girl is doing for Disney will in the near future be more like what a plumber or
electrician of today does, EXCEPT you won’t get trained on the job in a low-pay apprenticeship when at “entry level”. In fact to even be
considered for these “future-tech jobs” in the first place you’ll need to have good academic pedigree, lots of unpaid hobby time and 1+ years of
Here is her story, readers can decide for themselves, my opinion is that this is what a career for a plumber is going to look like in 15+ years:
Those whom are going to be rendered jobless by automation/robotics/tech are going to be the least likely to be able to pick up these pieces in the
coming era of traditional jobs destruction. Its going to IMPOSSIBLE for the poor to go back to school, get a masters degree in robotics, in full-time
only engineering programs, that strongly discourage their admitted students from taking part-time jobs, while favoring students who have both the
money and free time and don’t EVER work at an unrelated job to their majors, who then buy expensive robotics hardware/software to experiment with
outside of class.
Mark my words this future labor market in the pursuit of “maintaining robots” is going to be the sole domain of rich kids with advanced degrees
from good schools because NO ONE is going to train anyone else perceived as lesser, in that kind of job, WITH PAY.
To continue my above point, I believe “rich kid” job mobility is going to be a bigger problem for regular folks beyond what the previous "rich
kid" pedigree typically brought in the 20th century. This unfettered access to endless money and time to “explore” academics and hands-on work
with no consequences is going to END job mobility of any kind for the lower and middle classes, even those whom have met the typical required higher
education and work experience standards. Its a superstar only job market now with no room for middle of road folks.
Up to the 1940 a person could get just about any job with an 8th grade education, but today you need a BA or Masters for entry level.
Because the government & big business figured out a long time ago that populations would certainly increase over time, but due to technology
advancements, the availability of jobs would not expand to meet that population growth. There is a reason they don’t want people dropping out of
high school and then encouraging that same high school graduate to attend junior college, then a 4 year university and finally a Masters degree or PhD
because it DECREASES the amount of people looking for full-time employment at the SAME TIME, chasing after jobs in a market that CANNOT provide
employment for everyone looking for and willing to work.
Look at it this way, when people could get a job with an 8th grade education they went out and did it as soon as possible (opportunity cost). Then
jobs got scarcer and the minimum requirement became a high school diploma, adding 4 more years of people NOT Looking for jobs within their cohort.
Then jobs got even scarcer and the minimum became a 2 or 4 year college degree, adding an additional 2-4 years of people NOT looking for jobs within
their cohort. Now jobs are really scarce and may require a Masters or PHD, adding an additional 2-7 years of people NOT looking for jobs within their
Basically the way the economy has been structured TODAY, we are looking at young people within their cohort whom are NOT looking for full-time, career
type, employment for 6-15 YEARS, beyond K-12, all while they finish school!!!
This has been done ON PURPOSE to keep the number people seeking employment lower. In 1920 after 8th grade everyone who was able went out to look for
work and typically found it, that’s simply NOT possible today under any circumstances. Easily accessed welfare will add another 1-3 years of people
within a cohort to those “not seeking employment”, not to the specific detriment of society, but to continue to mask the illusion that jobs and
upward mobility are still available. So, if someone gets a graduate degree and collects 1-3 years of welfare on top of than, that’s ONE less person
competing for scarce jobs. The extra years of welfare then are acting in the same way to the larger economy as the increased minimum education levels
for employment. Essentially to decrease the number of able-bodied applicants out on the job market at the same time. This cohort of people "not
pursuing full-time employment" also includes those in Prison, Government pensioners and the disabled on government assistance. If everyone needed to
go out and “get a job” or “start their own business” TODAY as many “capitalists” suggest these days, we would all be making 0.25 cents a
Guess when the largest “recorded” wage increase happened in history for, non-land owing, wage-laborers, post the introduction of fiat currency?
I’ll tell you, it was after the black death pandemic in the 14th century.
How is that possible?
Because “the owners of capital”, post-black-death-pandemic still needed wage-laborers, but there was a HUGE shortage of able bodied people, so in
order for ANY work to get done they had to pay the peasants and other undesirables more, SIGNIFICANTLY MORE. This principle is still at work today,
when you take the time to recognize that portions of the population are actively discouraged from participating in the full-time labor market. This is
easily done, by throwing people in prison, forcing them to attend formal school longer and allowing more people to claim themselves as disabled or
collect both long and short term welfare. The next obvious step for government to further reduce the number of people participating in the full-time
labor market is to allow them easier access to welfare or as some have be recommending lately a guaranteed minimum wage or allowance that everyone
gets without having to provide labor to an employer first. I’m not going to go into any specific economic theory, but this above noted cohort of
non-participants collecting a base amount of guaranteed welfare/allowance will likely keep wages stable for those whom are still working full-time. If
all people capable of working full-time entered the jobs the market simultaneously, wages would crash and to a certain extent have, as of 2014.
There has ALWAYS been an economic system at work in the USA that limited the number of able bodied workers whom would be PAID and those who WOULD NOT
be paid. The “owners of capital” learned their lesson about labor shortages POST the “Black Death” and figured out from that day forward how
to keep wages down and potential available laborers numbers at maximum levels, while forcing them to compete for scarce available paid labor
In the past when there wasn’t enough money to go around to pay wages the “owners of capital” simply brought in more indentured servant
immigrants (Irish, Italians, Chinese, etc) or used flat out slave labor (Blacks, Native Americans, domestic prisoners, POW’s, etc). The only
difference between now and then is that “owners of capital” can’t LEGALLY have slaves or indentured servants anymore, BUT they have the same
pressures as before, to keep their high wages flowing and laborers working even when there isn’t enough “PIE” to go around to pay those laborers
for services rendered. The mechanisms today that replaces slaves and indentured servants are the following: longer than needed formal education for
basic employment, off-shoring of labor, forced retirement, prisoners and welfare.
The only other choice when these conditions eventually arise will be the expansion of welfare because some rich kids will want to work for fun or
enrichment, but there won’t be many job to go around anyway. So, someone has to go and it won’t be them at the end of the day. Another possible
policy outcome to all the above is making the legal adult age 25, which could give the middle class time to recover decades of wage loses and lower
the likelihood of people willy-nilly having a child that they know legally can live with them until 25. Baby making will drop off a cliff and daily
wages will soar if such a law were created.