4 Reasons Putin Is Already Losing in Ukraine

4 Reasons Putin Is Already Losing in Ukraine

At home, this intervention looks to be one of the most unpopular decisions Putin has ever made. The Kremlin’s own pollster released a survey on Monday that showed 73% of Russians reject it. In phrasing its question posed in early February to 1,600 respondents across the country, the state-funded sociologists at WCIOM were clearly trying to get as much support for the intervention as possible: “Should Russia react to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine?” they asked. Only 15% said yes — hardly a national consensus.

Russian Poll

The economic impact on Russia is already staggering. When markets opened on Monday morning, investors got their first chance to react to the Russian intervention in Ukraine over the weekend, and as a result, the key Russian stock indexes tanked by more than 10%. That amounts to almost $60 billion in stock value wiped out in the course of a day, more than Russia spent preparing for last month’s Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. The state-controlled natural-gas monopoly Gazprom, which accounts for roughly a quarter of Russian tax revenue, lost $15 billion in market value in one day — incidentally the same amount of money Russia promised to the teetering regime in Ukraine in December and then revoked in January as the revolution took hold.

The value of the Russian currency meanwhile dropped against the dollar to its lowest point on record, and the Russian central bank spent $10 billion on the foreign-exchange markets trying to prop it up.

Even Russia’s closest allies want no part of this. The oil-rich state of Kazakhstan, the most important member of every regional alliance Russia has going in the former Soviet space, put out a damning statement on Monday, marking the first time its leaders have ever turned against Russia on such a major strategic issue: “Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the developments in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Kazakhstan calls on all sides to stop the use of force in the resolution of this situation.”

What likely worries Russia’s neighbors most is the statement the Kremlin made on March 2, after Putin spoke on the phone with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. “Vladimir Putin noted that in case of any escalation of violence against the Russian-speaking population of the eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea, Russia would not be able to stay away and would resort to whatever measures are necessary in compliance with international law.” This sets a horrifying precedent for all of Russia’s neighbors.

Russia’s isolation from the West will deepen dramatically. In June, Putin was planning to welcome the leaders of the G-8, a club of Western powers (plus Japan), in the Russian resort city of Sochi. But on Sunday, all of them announced they had halted their preparations for attending the summit in protest at Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. So much for Putin’s hard-fought seat at the table with the leaders of the Western world.

In recent years, one of Russia’s greatest points of contention with the West has been over NATO’s plans to build a missile shield in Europe. Russia has seen this as a major threat to its security, as the shield could wipe out Russia’s ability to launch nuclear missiles at the West. The long-standing nuclear deterrent that has protected Russia from Western attacks for generations — the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction — could thus be negated, Russia’s generals have warned. But after Russia decided to unilaterally invade its neighbor to the west this weekend, any remaining resistance to the missile-shield project would be pushed aside by the renewed security concerns of various NATO members, primarily those in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Whatever hopes Russia had of forestalling the construction of the missile shield through diplomacy are now most likely lost.

No less worrying for Putin would be the economic sanctions the West is preparing in answer to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. Depending on their intensity, those could cut off the ability of Russian companies and businessmen in getting Western loans and trading with most of the world’s largest economies.

Finally -

And what about the upside for Putin? There doesn’t seem to be much of it, at least not compared with the damage he stands to inflict on Russia and himself. But he does look set to accomplish a few things. For one, he demonstrates to the world that his redlines, unlike those of the White House, cannot be crossed.

As I stated before, I don't see how Russia is going to come out of this on top.


Click links for remainder of article as well as for the Russian polling information. Its a lengthy read, but the analysis seems pretty good.

reply to post by Xcathdra


And all this is just during the "phony war" phase. How will the public react when Russians actually start dying?

Don't hint any of these points to the recent sign ups (yesterday) who are blasting posts in every thread related to the issue. (Odd how that always happens whenever a hot button world event pops up, elections, etc.)


Russia is heroic according to many.

It's a very strange decision isn't it, I can't see how Putin can think to come out on top in this one either.

I read something late last night right before I went to bed. I can't remember exactly how it was worded so I'll paraphrase it the best I can from memory here now. It seems very fitting....

"To the World: The Government of Russia is not the people of Russia.

Their Government has gone rogue and has stopped being a representative of the Russian People long ago, so remember that The people of Russia are NOT your enemy and act accordingly.

I'm sure there are Russian Veterans who love their country dearly, but it stopped being a Government of the Russian people many years ago, it is broken and corrupt beyond repair.

Many have awoken from their sleep and are now seeing the light but sadly many more will never see that light. Many are hypnotized by Putin, the Glorious former Soviet Government can do no wrong 'Putinism' For many the realization that he is not the "Good Guy" comes as a slap in the face, and the past decade they have been slapped way too many times. Over and over again they have been slapped by the lie's and path's that rogue Putinistic Government has taken that country all in the name of rebuilding Russia to its former Empire status. I'm sure the people will soon have enough.

So once again as that Rogue regime takes the People of that nation and world on a path towards war and destruction I say to you..Forgive them for not acting in the people of Russia's best interest and allowing this to reach this point.

The Russian People are NOT their Government". Please act accordingly"

Or,

Something to the effect...

From your link

The initiative Russian opinion polls were conducted on 1-2 February 2014 interviewed 1,600 people in 130 villages in 42 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.

I'd be curious what the updated results are.

And the MICEX is up 5.33% after Putin's speech.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Yes, there have already been anti-war demonstrations in Red Square. Apparently Putin was so concerned about the Russians in Ukraine that he forgot about the Ukrainians in Russia!

And I can find another thread on this site that will argue the opposite, complete with sources. This appears just as much as propaganda as the other. Swaying the mass opinion one way or another with one hit piece after another.

Putin hasn't made many serious missteps in most of his international dealings and this one appears no different. He projected himself onto the world stage again commanding everyone's attention. Does the OP seriously think Putin has destroyed his "image" or political clout from this? Granted, further escalation could change things but most people see this for what it is. Ukraine is being manhandled by the west and Russia. Western nations implemented a coup to oust a pro-Russian leader (albeit a evil and corrupt one) and Russia stood up to the west. I find it laughable to think that Russian citizens would be aghast by this.

reply to post by Xcathdra


It's war. Nobody wins. A few people may profit but more people will die, lots of people, innocent people. Because of those clowns in charge.

There are no winners, only those who lose the least.

reply to post by Xcathdra


Something must be happening in the Ukraine with them getting
all upstart like this. And just the same, Russia being so adament
about trying to hold on.

Gold Strike? IDK

reply to post by Rosinitiate


Although I hate to use the Hitler analogy, the Russians are in the position the Germans were when they annexed the Sudetenland. They won territory without firing a shot and were welcomed as liberators. Let's see how the Russian public feels when their boys start dying.

I don't think Putin is worried about the poles. People have short memories and he is not up for election right now.

The big problem is the West and Nato.

Nato, for all its rhetoric of peace and good will is surrounding Russia with missiles and bases. They do the same with Russian allies. Putin sees this clearly as the threat that it is. He is re-acting to this ongoing and increasing threat to his country.

The whole world knows now that the instability in Ukraine was engineered by the US.

If you poke the Bear enough, don't be surprised if it mauls you.

Regime change after regime change underhandedly orchestrated by the US right across the globe. This one threw out a duly elected government because the will of the people in Ukraine was not to the liking of the West. To add insult to injury, they took a guy out of prison and put him in charge. He was in prison because Ukraine's perfectly functioning justice system put him there. I would like to see a US prisoner put in the White House. Jeez, how pathetic can the West get!

Well, the Bear has responded, WTF did anybody expect would happen.

There is only International Law when it suits Western Powers. Regime change in this manner is illegal.

The West has thrown the Geneva Convention out the window by simply classing enemy soldiers as 'Terrorists' so it is OK to water board them when they are caught.

I am just so sick and bloody tired of the enormity of the Wests hypocrisy.

Whats good for the goose is good for the gander and in this case Putin is the gander. Obama is the goose!

The US will drag everyone into WW3 eventually.

I don't agree with Russian activities but I am incensed by the US. Putin had little choice but to respond.

P

reply to post by Xcathdra




I think its difficult for people outside Ukraine to understand the fact that there are parts of Ukraine where Russian is the language and other parts where it is not. I don't see how Putin could have stood by and possibly watched the Russian speaking people loyal to Russia feel they were left alone. What message would that have passed to the other countries on the Russian border that use to be a part of Russia with russian speaking populations loyal to Russia?

He is in a position where he cannot win either way, however loyalty runs deep with Russians and I suspect he will do whatever he can to protect the Russian speakers in the Ukraine until the situation settles there. I know the media will wind this up into a frenzy but there is always a middle way and hopefully the people involved with not panic but parle.

Today people are too well aware of the cost of war and want to get their countries running well and peacefully. We don't just march off to war because some jumpted up politicians demands it. We also know that the banks finance both sides and make money from blood so we aren't so easily fooled by so-called loyalty to one's country anymore. We are still coping with the knowledge of the disloyalty of a country's institutions to the people they administer to.

You can never get a situation where small countries are moulded into bigger ones with everybody agreeing. Look at the UK and the Scottish wanting their sovereignty - hopefully they will take queenie and her brood. Perhaps the Crimea and other Russian areas might feel they would like independence from Ukraine or perhaps at least get a better understanding established. It always seems to take a dictator to run a country made up of different groups of people and perhaps its time to make country's fit the groups that live there if they can''t fit harmoniously together.

DJW001
reply to post by Rosinitiate

 

Although I hate to use the Hitler analogy, the Russians are in the position the Germans were when they annexed the Sudetenland. They won territory without firing a shot and were welcomed as liberators. Let's see how the Russian public feels when their boys start dying.

Well if Bush/Obama/House of Saud is allowed to annex countries to corporations all over middle east then why should there be any issue with Russia doing it. And the stink of three digit agencies are all over the last 10 so called revolutions in the world. Rinse and repeat.

Pot calling the kettle black?

reply to post by Rosinitiate

And I can find another thread on this site that will argue the opposite, complete with sources. This appears just as much as propaganda as the other. Swaying the mass opinion one way or another with one hit piece after another.

Of course, but the person that wins in propaganda is the person with the most clout. Even if people know the US position is BS, it's without a doubt they have the most support worldwide. Whether it be people that simply do not want to poke the bee hive, or countries that are totally aligned with their interests.

The west has just finished devastating operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Syria (whether direct assault or under the radar unofficial subversion) and to be honest they probably can flex within diplomatic circles more than ever, without having to be too involved as they have been. The only thing that would force their hand is a direct push from Putin or other unfriendlies.

Putin hasn't made many serious missteps in most of his international dealings and this one appears no different.

Considering the G8 is now the G7 and no one is planning to show up to Sochi for the conference, I'd say his action is a misstep.

Does the OP seriously think Putin has destroyed his "image" or political clout from this? Granted, further escalation could change things but most people see this for what it is.

John Gotti had a great image right up until he was walking into a cell while he traded his $10k suit for a prison jumper. It's not about Putin's image, so much as it is his standing among the leaders of the world. And what they foreshadow for him and Russia.

No one likes a losing team. And no one wants to be associated with an enemy.

These people are all playing the long game. A couple single events don't mean much, but Putin's actions could be seen as very short sighted.

Ukraine is being manhandled by the west and Russia.

There's about a dozen or so countries where this is a very familiar story.

Western nations implemented a coup to oust a pro-Russian leader (albeit a evil and corrupt one) and Russia stood up to the west. I find it laughable to think that Russian citizens would be aghast by this.

Nationalism ain't all it's cracked up to be. People still protested in the US under the assumption that Iraq had WMDs, aided and abetted terrorists, and Im pretty sure it's hard to find someone that thinks Iraq war was a good idea.

Who knows whats worse, the lies getting into it, or the truth of why it happened. It did not help public or international sentiment concerning the west though.

The Ukraine situation is much worse though than any of those. There are tons of ethnic and Russian speaking peoples in that area. So it's basically like launching a war on your own people.

Realistically though, so long as you have a hammer and you're banging nails, not that many people want to ask you to put the hammer down. The person with the biggest hammer wins. Too many people with big hammer syndrome and you might have a world war…

I don't understand why people think Russia is losing?

the Ukraine does not have the power or the nerve to remove Russia from Crimea.
the USA and UK are not going to risk a war to push Russia out of the Crimea.
The Majority of Crimea is Russian
Elements of the Ukrainian army, navy and air force are defecting to Crimea
Ukraine doesn't have a working government
If any bullets are fired, you'll see droves of Ukrainians surrender or defecting to Crimea.
Putin won this game a long time ago, which is why the West have no idea what to do and are using the media to try and frighten people.

the Russia stock market dropped because all the fear mongering in Western Media.
Look at the stock markets now Russia is UP 6%
If Russia decided to dump ALL US stocks and remove the US as the reserve currency, it destroys the US economy.

Russia is in the driving seat (in regards to this particular problem) and everyone else is a long way behind.

reply to post by Shiloh7

I think its difficult for people outside Ukraine to understand the fact that there are parts of Ukraine where Russian is the language and other parts where it is not. I don't see how Putin could have stood by and possibly watched the Russian speaking people loyal to Russia feel they were left alone. What message would that have passed to the other countries on the Russian border that use to be a part of Russia with russian speaking populations loyal to Russia?

It is you who do not understand the situation. There are Russian speaking populations in the Ukraine, Ossetia, Abkhazia, Lithuania, Latvia and other independent, non-Russian states because at one time they were all part of the Soviet Union, not Russia. When the Soviet Union disbanded, these Russian speakers could have chosen to move to Russia if they wished to be Russian citizens. Instead, they chose to stay in Ukraine, making the Ukrainians. Their loyalty should be to Ukraine, not Russia.

He is in a position where he cannot win either way, however loyalty runs deep with Russians and I suspect he will do whatever he can to protect the Russian speakers in the Ukraine until the situation settles there. I know the media will wind this up into a frenzy but there is always a middle way and hopefully the people involved with not panic but parle.

The Russian speakers in Ukraine are in no danger. It is the Tatars and Jews who are likely to be the victims of Russian ethnic cleansing, as they have been in the past.

Today people are too well aware of the cost of war and want to get their countries running well and peacefully. We don't just march off to war because some jumpted up politicians demands it. We also know that the banks finance both sides and make money from blood so we aren't so easily fooled by so-called loyalty to one's country anymore. We are still coping with the knowledge of the disloyalty of a country's institutions to the people they administer to.

I agree, which is why it would have been wiser if Putin just sat back and let the situation develop without his intervention. His hasty moves suggests he was afraid things would not go his way without interference.

You can never get a situation where small countries are moulded into bigger ones with everybody agreeing. Look at the UK and the Scottish wanting their sovereignty - hopefully they will take queenie and her brood. Perhaps the Crimea and other Russian areas might feel they would like independence from Ukraine or perhaps at least get a better understanding established. It always seems to take a dictator to run a country made up of different groups of people and perhaps its time to make country's fit the groups that live there if they can''t fit harmoniously together.

Bear in mind that the Crimea was originally inhabited by the Tatars, a turkic people. Russia conquered the area and subjugated the natives. In the twentieth century, Stalin starved the Ukrainian people and forcibly relocated the Tatars. If the region is a mess, it is largely Russia's doing to begin with.

LittleByLittle

DJW001
reply to post by Rosinitiate

 

Although I hate to use the Hitler analogy, the Russians are in the position the Germans were when they annexed the Sudetenland. They won territory without firing a shot and were welcomed as liberators. Let's see how the Russian public feels when their boys start dying.

Well if Bush/Obama/House of Saud is allowed to annex countries to corporations all over middle east then why should there be any issue with Russia doing it. And the stink of three digit agencies are all over the last 10 so called revolutions in the world. Rinse and repeat.

Pot calling the kettle black?

Two wrongs make a right?

money will win...
till we get back to sticks and stones...

putin is a martial artist, I'll bet he has red the art of war

Rosinitiate
Putin hasn't made many serious missteps in most of his international dealings and this one appears no different. He projected himself onto the world stage again commanding everyone's attention. Does the OP seriously think Putin has destroyed his "image" or political clout from this?

He's not going to come out of this looking all Hip, Slick and cool nor smelling like roses...

Granted, further escalation could change things but most people see this for what it is. Ukraine is being manhandled by the west and Russia. Western nations implemented a coup to oust a pro-Russian leader (albeit a evil and corrupt one) and Russia stood up to the west.

Manhandled?

Pop Quiz..

Which foreign country has boots on the ground in the Ukraine?

I find it laughable to think that Russian citizens would be aghast by this.

You know how the Russian people feel about this better than the Russian people themselves?

Tell us more