A simple outline of Ukraine's Crisis leading us all to WWIII scenario

1) The former Ukraine democratically elected far-right government didn't want to join the EU (December 2013).

2) There was a 2-month riot in the streets of Kiev (Ukraine's capital) asking the government to leave, and let Ukraine join the EU (February 2014).

3) The government was finally dissolved after several killings during the riots (February 2014).

4) A new pro-EU government takes over (February 2014).

5) This pro-EU government is held by the EU (Germany on front, dealing).

6) The Germans, in the big picture, screw everything up because obviously about a 70% of the Ukraine people DO NOT WANT to join the EU. Remember the prior government was democratically elected.

7) So, the UE, as a whole, is backing a not-exactly legit government.

8) Putin, who legitimately considers Russia a world-power, is not accepting a government in Ukraine that is not held by the people of Ukraine, a country basically Russia-oriented.

9) Russia deploys in Eastern Ukraine and threatens the new Ukraine Government.

10) The EU is doing again a #ty, pathetic job, conducted by ever-disfunctional Germany.

12) Exactly 100 years after WWI, we have the chessboard set for WWIII.

13) Awesome. Stock-markets plummet, always trembling. #ing weak money.

14) The US is flying Kerry over to -- exactly what? I have no idea.

15) If I was US Government I would want a EU divided over Russia, and a Russia murmuring war, to keep the game going.

Yep, all the main points covered!.

reply to post by AboveTheTrees


There will be no World War Three....it's that simple...you mention all valid points but we will not go head to head militarily with Russia or China...nor will they go head to head with us....we have learned over the years that war is only good for the smaller countries...Mark my words ATS no world war three....sorry to disappoint some...

reply to post by AboveTheTrees


I think you hit the nail right on the head there.

Every day I find my self moving closer and closer to agreeing with Russia. It may be my russian heritage or my lack of respect for the American government.

At the begining I found my self on the side of the protestors, Now I believe my view on this situation has become more liberal and I find my self stuck in the middle. There is so much information out there that it is hard to determine what is fact from what is fiction anymore..

I was talking to my grandfather about this situation this morning and He whole heartedly believes that we are heading towards WW3, He was saying that the atmosphere surrounding Msm, conversations with peers, the lack of truth, all reminds him of how it felt like before WW2.

Has anyone else talked to vetrens about this new conflict we have?

reply to post by chrismarco


I some what agree with you but not completely.

Yes I dont think there will be a world war, but I do believe there will be a war of some kind.

Remember it is the Bankers and companies in the business of war not countries that profit the most.

A true ATS'er would know that.
Edit: remember there is oil and treaties envolved aswell.

Im am against war but your saying that the US should back away from an ally? Didnt Clinton sign a treaty which said that the USA would protect Ukraine from invading forces if Ukraine agreed to not build nuclear arms. (or something along those lines, Im paraphrasing of course.

This Ukraine situation will not lead to WW3. Obama and the EU have no cards to play in this particular conflict. If Russia wants the Ukraine it can take it very easily and the rest of the world will be mad and the US will boycott the next summit meeting or whatever and we will all go on with our lives.

Putin is out maneuvering the US and the EU at every turn of late. The Middle East is where Russia will expand its influence over the coming decade. It has a nice "budding" relationship with Iran in the works while the US is withdrawing from the region. Nope, the Ukraine situation will lead to some hurt feelings in the West and within the EU but little else will result from Russia moving into the area.

The other thing to think about is that the major roadblock to WW3 is "mutual assured destruction" the world lives with today. This was NOT the case back in the late 1930's and it is a very powerful deterrent to WW3. Small regional conflicts like this go on all the time it seems with little real damage done to the overall world political climate.

reply to post by snypwsd


I personally do not like the fact that countries have unions now. We Canadians had no say when we entered into the North American Union.

Why is it the politicians that get to make this choice and us average joes dont get to find out until after its all said and done..
So I guess in that view I am taking the side of Russia. I like the fact that they are standing up against the Unions and UN (otherwise known as NWO)

Edit: Is that what we call Democracy now a days? It seems like its more of a Dictatorship then a democracy. We the people should have a vote on something as important like that. Maybe we should follow in Swedens footsteps and have an actual democracy where the people actually have a say and can vote yes or no on the subject.

Not going to happen. Granted Russia's position is weak and it is indeed desperate to gain something from the Ukraine fiasco. But, look at the balance of forces. Russia does not have the forces for an outright invasion of Ukraine. The amount of forces Russia could commit to such an invasion with any chance of success would mean stripping its forces from every where else and full calling out of its reserves. Even then one on one against Ukraine Russia would be hard pressed to come up with an invasion force that would not lead to slow slugging match. And that would risk US or NATO intervention and in that Scenario the Russians become out numbered and out gunned by a very large margin. Russia can not risk a losing war with the West.

So they play the limited cards they have. An occupation of Crimea by "unknown" forces and silence on Putins part all in the hope to gain some leverage for talks later. So what do the Russian want? A few things. One, some kind of guarantee against Ukraine joining NATO, two, some kind guarantee for its port in Ukraine, three maybe a buffer zone of sorts of the other two and cannot be gained, and last an IMF loan that requires Europe's support to help prop up the failing Russian economy.

What does the West have to do? Not much. Just the talk of sanctions has already send what is left of Russia's economy into a tail spin. Russia can not invade Ukraine and the longer this entire thing goes on the more the Russian economy continues to fall. And that is before the West does anything. In fact right now the most powerful thing the West can do is talk about what it might do. The West has all the cards and Russia's action have all been about giving them something bargain with. The worst thing the West could do is begin making threats or conducting any sort of military actions. That would back Russia into a corner that it might not be able to get out of. It seems at least that the US and Europe are smart enough to know this and have taken the correct path to dealing with the Russians. Then again when you have all the cards you can afford to be calm and collected.

snypwsd
reply to post by snypwsd

 

We Canadians had no say when we entered into the North American Union.

If it makes you feel any better, the Americans and Mexicans had no say either.

AnonymousCitizen

snypwsd
reply to post by snypwsd

 

We Canadians had no say when we entered into the North American Union.

If it makes you feel any better, the Americans and Mexicans had no say either.

Thats my point! We dont get a say in anything even though we call our selves democratic countries.

MrSpad
Not going to happen. Granted Russia's position is weak and it is indeed desperate to gain something from the Ukraine fiasco. But, look at the balance of forces. Russia does not have the forces for an outright invasion of Ukraine. The amount of forces Russia could commit to such an invasion with any chance of success would mean stripping its forces from every where else and full calling out of its reserves. Even then one on one against Ukraine Russia would be hard pressed to come up with an invasion force that would not lead to slow slugging match. And that would risk US or NATO intervention and in that Scenario the Russians become out numbered and out gunned by a very large margin. Russia can not risk a losing war with the West.

So they play the limited cards they have. An occupation of Crimea by "unknown" forces and silence on Putins part all in the hope to gain some leverage for talks later. So what do the Russian want? A few things. One, some kind of guarantee against Ukraine joining NATO, two, some kind guarantee for its port in Ukraine, three maybe a buffer zone of sorts of the other two and cannot be gained, and last an IMF loan that requires Europe's support to help prop up the failing Russian economy.

What does the West have to do? Not much. Just the talk of sanctions has already send what is left of Russia's economy into a tail spin. Russia can not invade Ukraine and the longer this entire thing goes on the more the Russian economy continues to fall. And that is before the West does anything. In fact right now the most powerful thing the West can do is talk about what it might do. The West has all the cards and Russia's action have all been about giving them something bargain with. The worst thing the West could do is begin making threats or conducting any sort of military actions. That would back Russia into a corner that it might not be able to get out of. It seems at least that the US and Europe are smart enough to know this and have taken the correct path to dealing with the Russians. Then again when you have all the cards you can afford to be calm and collected.

edit on 3-3-2014 by MrSpad because: (no reason given)

i do not agree with that atall.if russia wanted to invade they could do it with no problem,they know US and NATO will get involved but the also know they aint going to risk a world war where russia deploys its nuclear wepons,like north korea america knows it has to back down or hell on earth will come a reality.

reply to post by AnonymousCitizen


Now that's good stuff...

I know the general population thinks no ww3.....and I agree...but to play devils advocate....

The China factor....China has remained relatively quiet although I just read something that said they are in "agreement" with Russia.....although I cant seem to find it again. Imagine if China hopped in when everyone is weak right now....maybe invades some islands...or Taiwan. Or North Korea does something stupid. These guys are itching for it...and there is no better time than now.....so to say its impossible I think is pretty closed minded....because it is possible....If more players hop in. It is our job to think like this and try to see ...what would cause ww3....what signs should be looking for....maybe china cashing in more bonds..moving units...etc

sparky31

MrSpad
Not going to happen. Granted Russia's position is weak and it is indeed desperate to gain something from the Ukraine fiasco. But, look at the balance of forces. Russia does not have the forces for an outright invasion of Ukraine. The amount of forces Russia could commit to such an invasion with any chance of success would mean stripping its forces from every where else and full calling out of its reserves. Even then one on one against Ukraine Russia would be hard pressed to come up with an invasion force that would not lead to slow slugging match. And that would risk US or NATO intervention and in that Scenario the Russians become out numbered and out gunned by a very large margin. Russia can not risk a losing war with the West.

So they play the limited cards they have. An occupation of Crimea by "unknown" forces and silence on Putins part all in the hope to gain some leverage for talks later. So what do the Russian want? A few things. One, some kind of guarantee against Ukraine joining NATO, two, some kind guarantee for its port in Ukraine, three maybe a buffer zone of sorts of the other two and cannot be gained, and last an IMF loan that requires Europe's support to help prop up the failing Russian economy.

What does the West have to do? Not much. Just the talk of sanctions has already send what is left of Russia's economy into a tail spin. Russia can not invade Ukraine and the longer this entire thing goes on the more the Russian economy continues to fall. And that is before the West does anything. In fact right now the most powerful thing the West can do is talk about what it might do. The West has all the cards and Russia's action have all been about giving them something bargain with. The worst thing the West could do is begin making threats or conducting any sort of military actions. That would back Russia into a corner that it might not be able to get out of. It seems at least that the US and Europe are smart enough to know this and have taken the correct path to dealing with the Russians. Then again when you have all the cards you can afford to be calm and collected.

edit on 3-3-2014 by MrSpad because: (no reason given)

i do not agree with that atall.if russia wanted to invade they could do it with no problem,they know US and NATO will get involved but the also know they aint going to risk a world war where russia deploys its nuclear wepons,like north korea america knows it has to back down or hell on earth will come a reality.

What are they going to invade with? Have you bothered to look at the size and composition of the Russian armed forced compared to Ukraines? Have you bothered to look at a map and where Russia has to keep forces? Take a look at those numbers and try and figure out how Russia could invade Ukraine easly even without NATO in the way. Their are certain military realities here that can no be ignored.

reply to post by cosmicexplorer


I expect China to not say anything because there is no need...Russia is capable of standing on it's own and as for North Korea they are dealing with their own internal issues. Slowly the North Korean people are waking up and pushing back against the military and the government is ever so slowly losing their grip...

reply to post by MrSpad

What are they going to invade with? Have you bothered to look at the size and composition of the Russian armed forced compared to Ukraines? Have you bothered to look at a map and where Russia has to keep forces? Take a look at those numbers and try and figure out how Russia could invade Ukraine easly even without NATO in the way. Their are certain military realities here that can no be ignored.

Looking through live leak their appears to be some Russian Military Convoys literally driving into the Ukraine...it appears to be the most civil takeover that I have seen yet...

I was in the country of Moldova about 6 years ago (it's in the same area as Ukraine), and I noticed a huge propaganda push to join the EU. The problem was, Moldova is a very agrarian country. Quite a bit of the GDP comes in the form of produce and wine. If Moldova were to join the EU, many of the smaller farmers wouldn't be able to sell their fruits and vegetables at the wildly popular open air markets. The EU has different health standards that these small time farmers wouldn't be able to work with feasibly.

It seemed to me, that the it was the under 30 crowd that wanted EU membership. From what I could tell, they liked the products and entertainment of Western Europe and wanted to emulate them more.

The dreaded double post!!

chrismarco
reply to post by cosmicexplorer

 

I expect China to not say anything because there is no need...Russia is capable of standing on it's own and as for North Korea they are dealing with their own internal issues. Slowly the North Korean people are waking up and pushing back against the military and the government is ever so slowly losing their grip...

And what do countries do when people push back at them...? They find wars to fight to distract them! I know the likely hood of China or N Korea doing anything is slim...but I suppose its possible...

reply to post by chrismarco


I think Russia wanted at least part of the Ukraine and the US said, ok, help us get an out for Syria and we will prep Ukraine for you to takeover.

I think China jumped in to help grease a hands off for the U S. In return everone gets oil. Like the US leaked memo said, who cares about the EU?