The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2014. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2015. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2020 season. This is the same list used in the 2008 season with the exception of Gonzalo, Isaias, and Paulette, which replaced Gustav, Ike, and Paloma, respectively. The first name to be used this season is Arthur.
We identify the formation of Category 5 hurricanes occurring mainly around the decadal minimum variation of African dust and in deep water areas of the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricane eyes have the lowest pressure. According to our results, future tropical cyclones will not evolve to Category 5 until the next decadal minimum that is, by the year 2015 +/- 2.
A survey of reports of electrical activity in hurricanes and typhoons from flight notes and personal experience (18 years, >230 eyewall penetrations for R. A. Black; 20 years for J. Hallett, plus that of others at the Hurricane Research Division), and perusal of flight notes dating from 1980, show that lightning in and within 100 km or so of the eyewall is usually sparse. However, occasionally, significant electrical activity (>one flash per minute) occurs in or near the eyewall.
Since cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning can be observed with remote detection networks that provide the polarity and frequency of CG lightning, there is potential that hurricane evolution may be detected remotely and that lightning may be usable as an indicator of a change in the storm intensity and/or track.
Abstract—The mechanisms of incipience and intensification of dangerous atmospheric vortex processes such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interaction with the Earth’s ionosphere are considered. Different models of TCs are analyzed, including models taking into account the ionization processes. The mechanisms taking into account the spiral field of velocities during TC formation are analyzed, as are the physical mechanism that explains the statistical correlation between short term variations in galactic cosmic rays (Forbush decreases) and the frequency of incipience and the intensification of TCs. It is shown that such an effect is conditioned by a decrease in the ion production rate during Forbush decreases against the tropopause and, hence, a decrease in the temperature upon the top of the ionosphere altitude because of a decrease in the latent heat release due to watervapor condensation on the newly formed ions. This process leads to an increase in the temperature difference between the ocean surface and the top level of TCs and, respectively, to the intensification of vertical convection, which results in cyclone intensification. It is concluded that the study of these mesoscale vortex processes requires taking into account not only the hydrodynamical features of these formations, but also their thermodynamical and electrodynamical properties. The results are important for the organization of studying and monitoring TCs with the use of space borne techniques.
The analysis of problems of TC generation and their interaction with the Earth’s atmosphere shows that the helicity of cyclogenesis should be considered when simulating these phenomena, as should the electromagnetic properties of these structures due to processes of ionization from different sources: on the underlying surface (natural radioactivity) and outside (cosmic rays) and inside of a hurricane (thunderstorm activity, corona discharges on drops, and breakdown on escaping electrons). Electromagnetic forces inside a TC can affect its dynamics, in particular, the development of inverse cascade instability. Ionization results in increased heat release in regions of intense ion formation, which apparently causes the formation of hot towers inside a hurricane with high thunderstorm activity.
The effective charge separation inside a vortex structure results in the formation of a strong electric field on the top edge of a hurricane penetrating into the ionosphere and producing local inhomogeneities in the ionospheric E and F regions. A difference in the tropospheric conductivity inside a TC and outside it can be a source of ionospheric anomalies, resulting in a change in ionospheric potential over it.
...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES