Russia declares war on Ukraine. Live updates from inside Ukraine

originally posted by: all2human
Based on observations here and other sources, taking into account general attitude/rhetoric and considering the financial actions of both sides, It is my believe Russia will invade E Ukraine within the next 10 days, Russia would not have invested and risked this much just to turn around.

I hope like hell you are right.

My concern is Putin.. this is a personal thing with him and deals around what he considers as no one respecting him as a leader. That type of mindset generally does not look at the entire picture... The picture they have revolves around their image and not that of their nation.

Time will tell.

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: all2human
Based on observations here and other sources, taking into account general attitude/rhetoric and considering the financial actions of both sides, It is my believe Russia will invade E Ukraine within the next 10 days, Russia would not have invested and risked this much just to turn around.

I hope like hell you are right.

My concern is Putin.. this is a personal thing with him and deals around what he considers as no one respecting him as a leader. That type of mindset generally does not look at the entire picture... The picture they have revolves around their image and not that of their nation.

Time will tell.

He just made himself irrelevant read the article i posted the west will leave Russia behind.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: victor7

You are missing the point...

While gas / oil is a key component of Russian economic growth, a stable Russia that works with its neighbors is key to exporting those resources.

It does not matter if Russia is swimming in oil / gas. If they don't have anyone to buy it, they wont benefit from it. Add that issue into the economic mix and you will find nations that will spend loads of money to find alternative energy sources / technologies, which further puts Russia into the hole.

What you and others don seem to understand -
Its not Russia we have an issue with - Its Putin and his actions that we have an issue with.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: victor7

You are missing the point...

While gas / oil is a key component of Russian economic growth, a stable Russia that works with its neighbors is key to exporting those resources.

It does not matter if Russia is swimming in oil / gas. If they don't have anyone to buy it, they wont benefit from it. Add that issue into the economic mix and you will find nations that will spend loads of money to find alternative energy sources / technologies, which further puts Russia into the hole.

What you and others don seem to understand -
Its not Russia we have an issue with - Its Putin and his actions that we have an issue with.

Well for me im part russian so that would be a major frued thing if i hated Russians lol.

a reply to: Xcathdra
Now why would you hope that I would be right?
when the target country is ultimately China, who has only made gains since the conflict.

Let's start fresh for a minute to avoid confusion, because I'm getting mixed messages. Based on current activities, what is the general consensus here..

Will Russia Invade within days?

With all the recent activity getting hotter and hotter it seems to me they will.

However, I'd like to know what everyone thinks from both sides.

a reply to: Wookiep

I'm of the opinion that they will indeed invade within the next 10 days. I would actually expect more like 2-5, probably right after the next round of sanctions hit or the Ukrainian army starts its activities in earnest as far as the blockades of the pro=Russians go.

As for sides, I am neutral. I do not believe that the current Ukrainian government is exactly legitimate, but neither do I necessarily believe that the activity in the East is entirely legitimate.

a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneck

Thanks for the balanced post. I think most of this thread has been posters pointing toward one side or another. In the grand scheme, I don't think it matters which side caused or didn't cause this. What matters is reality. I think most of us monitoring this just want to know how this will escalate!

a reply to: Wookiep

IMO I think Russia will continue its invasion over the next week as well. Actually I think they will invade up to May 11th if it looks like the separatist regions won't be able to hold their referendums. The referendums are risky if Russia cannot control the outcome.

Basis for invasion -
Russian troops and their proximity to the Ukraine border.
Russia denying over flight under open skies agreements.
Russian position on Ukraine using force to put down pro Russian groups.
Russia being caught red handed in Ukraine.

Finally and to me the most important -
Russia cutting all lines of communication with the White House with the exception of FM Lavrov and Sec. Kerry.

I get the impression that Russia did not expect sanctions to occur because of Germany.
I think Russia tipped its hands on East / South Ukraine by using the same strategy in Crimea.
The unusual mixes messages between Putin and Lavrov - Specifically in the last few days where Putin stated he would get involved in Ukraine should Russian interest be threatened while Lavrov tells the media Russia would never invade a nation solely based on Russian interests.

I think Putin is acting in an irrational manner and I think the entire situation revolves around Putin and his self image. Putin's actions to date and the justifications for it are having the exact opposite effect of what Russia wants in reference to NATO / EU.

As for sides - I lean towards NATO / WEST because to date Russian accusations have not been supported with any facts.

Just my 2 cents.

originally posted by: Wookiep
Let's start fresh for a minute to avoid confusion, because I'm getting mixed messages. Based on current activities, what is the general consensus here..

Will Russia Invade within days?

With all the recent activity getting hotter and hotter it seems to me they will.

However, I'd like to know what everyone thinks from both sides.

Well your asking for personal opinions id say no. Heres the logic if you will Putin kmowsannexing Ukraine is out of the question quite frankly for a couple of reasons involving money they dont have to support Ukraine economy remember he would pay for energy schools housing urban development. Number two the Ukrainians arent going to just roll over i know he knows this though admittedly i had my doubts at first as well. But they appear to be gaining a backbone i attribute this more to the people than the government it wasnt until people started demanding action that the government changed.Again Putin doesnt want an another money pit like Afghanistan on his hands he knows this is not an option.

So why are the troops there scare factor it was very effective at the beginning of this remember they would move troops and Ukraine panicked. Keeping there government spinning wheels. Its lost is scare factor now there just daring Russia to cross the border this often happens fear becomes resolve. If he was going to invade its alittle late in the game he has given Kiev to much time. His only hope is to create a Ukrainian spring the chances of that are becoming more remote as people realize this isnt wide spread but a small group.You would be lucky to get two three thousand people even in Donetsk which has over a million and mind you there are more Ukrainians in the area.

Moscow needs there propaganda to catch on but if Kiev acts like a government this is over they will hold there elections and move on. If they fall into indecision and general uselessness like displayed early on a new country will be born. Now as i said merely opinion and i could be wrong because ill be honest i way under estimated Putin ibelieved he was smarter than this.

Putin should have played it this way Turmoil in Kiev step one offer Russian assistance. You get in touch with the new government send advisers to help set up business contracts to assist the new govt bringing a dependency to Russia fight fire with fire as they say. Putin had a huge advantage there is a bond between the two countries which he thoroughly destroyed now but it was there. Ukraine would bever have agreed to western military in there country. No matter what deals the EU wanted to make he could all was make a better deal down the road proximity has huge advantages. He didnt look at it like a capitalist he looked at it like a communist. Ultimately he could have had Kiev great full for his assistance as they weathered the storm

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: Wookiep

IMO I think Russia will continue its invasion over the next week as well. Actually I think they will invade up to May 11th if it looks like the separatist regions won't be able to hold their referendums. The referendums are risky if Russia cannot control the outcome.

Basis for invasion -
Russian troops and their proximity to the Ukraine border.
Russia denying over flight under open skies agreements.
Russian position on Ukraine using force to put down pro Russian groups.
Russia being caught red handed in Ukraine.

Finally and to me the most important -
Russia cutting all lines of communication with the White House with the exception of FM Lavrov and Sec. Kerry.

I get the impression that Russia did not expect sanctions to occur because of Germany.
I think Russia tipped its hands on East / South Ukraine by using the same strategy in Crimea.
The unusual mixes messages between Putin and Lavrov - Specifically in the last few days where Putin stated he would get involved in Ukraine should Russian interest be threatened while Lavrov tells the media Russia would never invade a nation solely based on Russian interests.

I think Putin is acting in an irrational manner and I think the entire situation revolves around Putin and his self image. Putin's actions to date and the justifications for it are having the exact opposite effect of what Russia wants in reference to NATO / EU.

As for sides - I lean towards NATO / WEST because to date Russian accusations have not been supported with any facts.

Just my 2 cents.

I agree on one point this depends on Putin its his call ifhe acts irrationally than yeah theylll invade guess im hoping hes not that stupid.

a reply to: Wookiep

This situation is a changing wave each single hour. I am sure Kremlin has some thresholds built up beyond which invasion starts in 5 min. But it seems there will be lot more of Russian presence before and after May 11 in the Eastern Ukraine. Russia is better off without an out in open invasion but will do that if needed.

I strongly believe that NATO should not encroach on Russia's near abroad. NATO should exist but with a buffer from Russia. This is the best scenario for the world peace and development.

I am not on the side of the bankers. Like to tend more to interests of common folks around the world, hence Russian Federation is the one I support.

a reply to: Wookiep

I'd agree with you on that. I am watching like a hawk to try to find out how it's going to escalate. There's a lot of peripheral activity associated with this thing that interests me greatly.

The China and Russia gas deal interests me, relations between Iran and Russia, the issue with the gas.

I am not worried about WW3. That is a thought in my mind, but I am not looking for it to happen. I am, however, worried about what could happen in the coming months because of these sanctions and this posturing. The EU is already on the edge in many of its states, and Greece has done gone off the cliff, and I am concerned that this will send them into the abyss. I am also concerned about the BRICS trying to tank the petrodollar, which seems like a real possibility for the first time in many a moon.

I am concerned about this from a strictly economic sense at this point.

a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneck

Good post, and I share the same concerns in terms of economics. I also am concerned by what this could cause even if it doesn't escalate further in terms of a western Ukraine vs Eastern Ukraine civil war. Ultimately, best case scenario ( and this is unfortunate) I see Ukraine being split, with something almost equivalent to a DMZ zone between east and west Ukraine. Unless of course, Russia decides to take even Kiev..

Anyway, even in the best case scenario I see Cold War relations existing again between Russia and the U.S. I just don't see how any scenario could restore relations pre- 4 months ago. It's sad IMO. Even if no shots are fired in a best-case scenario, this situation has been damaging to U.S./Russia relations and I have no idea if/when things could be restored again to what they were before this crisis.

We now live in a new time IMO, a time that will once again cause the fear of a nuclear exchange between Russia and the U.S. I'm not saying we are there now, but this situation has done nothing but create that environment once again in the world, and that's not good.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: Wookiep


Russia denying over flight under open skies agreements.

The US has now flown the Open Skies flight over Russia.

www.foxnews.com...

Reports that seperatists have taken over a border post near the Russian exercise areas.

Gregor Peter @L0gg0l RUSSIAN FLAG RAISED AT BORDER POINT OF DOLZHANSK IN EASTERN UKRAINE youtu.be/aZVYVhGYKWg (via @andreyrussia33)

originally posted by: tommyjo

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: Wookiep


Russia denying over flight under open skies agreements.

The US has now flown the Open Skies flight over Russia.

www.foxnews.com...

I missed that... Thanks for the info.

My apologies.

Voice of Russia

A convoy of six armoured personnel carriers of the Ukrainian Army has left the town of Svyatogorsk and is approaching the village of Khrestishche, 15 kilometres north-west of Slavyansk, which is still held by those favouring the federalization of Ukraine, the RIA Novosti news agency reports with reference to eyewitnesses.

Myroslava Petsa @myroslavapetsa
Acc to Russia's perm rep to the #OSCE Andrei Kelin, responsibility for detained military monitors's safety lies on Ukraine that invited them