Russia declares war on Ukraine. Live updates from inside Ukraine

originally posted by: victor7

Yuk !! what would that mean? bad for global markets and economies right away......may be major war later? let's hope not !!

That all sides have failed.

originally posted by: Xcathdra


Shooting a Russian military aircraft down inside Ukraine airspace or killing Russian forces who are inside Ukraine boundaries would not give Russia any type of justification.

originally posted by: ProfessorT

originally posted by: Xcathdra
I've gone and done it now -

Awesome.... lol

Putin needs some excuse to go public with and a 20 million dollar plane is his trick, for an invasion of mainland Ukraine. Everyone has given up on getting Crimea back until a big war starts, then it will be taken back.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
We don't get our oil supplies from Russia. We don't get our LNG supplies from Russia.

I never said you did. I simply pointed out that an OPEC reduction of 5% turned the US into a mewing baby. A 30% cut to Europe's energy will shut down Europe for the foreseeable future.

Uhm nope - We are talking sanctions related to their invasion of Ukraine -
Russia says sanctions hurting, warns foreign firms not to go

You mean the firms that are currently begging their own governments to not impose more, as it will hurt them more then Russia?

As for Russia's capital exodus...they lost 1/2 trillian in the 4 years prior to Crimea...that is on par with the current 'exodus'.

Russia has spent 10-20 billion to prop the Ruble up on the international market.

All from just their invasion into Ukraine.

And they just signed a $270 billion deal with China. So...they are gaining from sanctions.

Baltic states lead push to cut Russia gas reliance

Cute. So they will be independent of Russian energy in what? 5 years? 10 years?

Winter will be here in 6-7 months, depending on location. Not only do they not have the capability to build the infrastructure in time to offset that, the rest of the world does not have the time to cover the required production to supply them.

Europe is 10 years out from independence on Russian energy.

Winter is coming...

originally posted by: dragonridr

originally posted by: SurrenderingAmerica
US can lose Russian market if bans rocket, space component supplies to Russia - Moscow

The United States introducing sanctions against Russia in rocket and space equipment supplies will affect the volume of the US production of space components, United Rocket and Space Corporation General Director Igor Komarov said.


"If now 70% of the component base for the space industry is produced in the US, believe me, if these sanctions are introduced, and last at least a year, I can bet that in five years the share of components produced in the US will be much smaller - 40-50%. The situation will inevitably change considerably," Komarov said on Rossiya 24 (Russia 24) TV channel on Friday.

"With the demand for such components another producer, who will be able to supply them to the market, will appear," he said.

"We are certain that if such a situation emerges, someone else will produce the components being produced in the US," Komarov said.

Wow this article makes zero sense think about it the US bans sending rocket and space components meaning they cant sell them to Russia. then he goes on to say if the ban continues the US sales to Russia will drop to 40 or 50 percent because by then someone else will be making the parts they can buy from. But the us Banned selling them the parts in the first place so how is us sales going to drop anymore than zero. And it also means Russia wont have a replacement in place and gradually but other stuff it just all stops. Makes absolutely no sense must be hitting the vodka.

Apologies on the delayed response.


Dragonridr, you have it backwards. . .


- It means that Russia is US's equipment supplier, so US can build components.

- If US sanctions Russia, then US gets no supplies. No supplies means LESS things US can build.

- LESS things US can build, LESS things US sends into space.

- LESS things US can build, means a gap that needs to be filled. * Insert emerging countries to fill that gap *

- Those emerging companies now have a discounted supply line from Russia.

- Now US has to find another equipment supplier to build their rocket engines. . . . Not cheap.

Read this article it'll shed a bit more light on what Igor meant:

Mark Jacobson, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund and former NATO official, agreed that the Pentagon's contracting process for its space launches is "a problem over the medium to long term" for U.S. national security. 

"The United States is going to have to find a way to diversify its ability to put heavy payloads into space," he told Fox News. 

"The single point of failure in this case is that we assume that the Russians will always provide these engines. What happens if they stop?"

Russian official under US sanction plays key role in Pentagon space program

The article continues to say:

"ULA maintains a two-to-three-year year supply of RD-180 engines in the United States to minimize potential supply disruptions," Rye said.

Now you begin to see what Igor Komarov, Director of United Rocket and Space Corporation General was getting at when he said:

if these sanctions are introduced, and last at least a year, I can bet that in five years the share of components produced in the US will be much smaller - 40-50%.

And to finish this up - I could have passed down some advice to you from your condescending comrade Xcathdra:

You might find the information you are wanting if you actually, you know, look for it.

. . . But I won't

a reply to: peck420

There is a difference between oil (OPEC) and natural Gas (Europe).

If Russia lost that much over the last 4 years then Putin's decision to use his Sharks and Jets routine is even more stupid than I initially thought.

As for China - If Europe were to completely drop Russian gas purchases, It would account for 30%. China, a leading nation for renewable resources, can NOT absorb that amount to offset the loss of Europe. They could only absorb about 15-20%, leaving Russia with a surplus they would need to find buyers for. Secondly, China has already notified Russia is s expecting cuts in how much it pays for Russian gas, just as China did to Iran.

To rely on China is dangerous for Russia.


To dismiss European resolve to replace Russia as its primary source of energy is equally dangerous. Especially when the energy sector is all that is keeping Russia afloat right now.

Department of State ‏@StateDept · 9m
Residents of #Crimea are facing possible limits on their basic rights. Find out more at go.usa.gov... . #UnitedForUkraine

a reply to: SurrenderingAmerica

con·de·scen·sion [kon-duh-sen-shuhn]

noun

1. an act or instance of condescending.


2. behavior that is patronizing or condescending.


3. voluntary assumption of equality with a person regarded as inferior.

I am not condescending and if I were I would point it out to you.

Putin on the other hand fits this to a T.

originally posted by: ProfessorT

NBC News World News ‏@NBCNewsWorld · 5m
European Military Observers Missing in Ukraine nbcnews.to...

AboveTopSecret ‏@AboveTopSecret · 2m
Looks Like The Russian Military Isn’t Messing Around www.break.com... … via @Breakcom

a reply to: ProfessorT

Lol !!! that fatty Igor seems to have had triple helpings of fried sausage cuts with several big glasses of beer !!

Xcathdra:

This action by Putin is going to result in his downfall.

How would you know this? The way I see it is that Putin can either invade openly, or not at all? The most conspicuous aspect of this crisis is its lack of news clarity, you cannot trust a word of what is being reported. You either pick a side for prejudicial reasons or lose interest for not being able to maintain some level of factual understanding. I prefer not to pick a side, but to speculate and offer thought and opinion of my own.

The downfall of Putin would be a severe loss to Russia, and would destabilise the whole region. One thing I feel certain about is that Ukraine means nothing to the West, it is simply a sensitive region (to Russia) that has easily been made chaotic. It is a region as important to Russia as the chess squares of K4 or Q4 or K5 or Q5 depending on the set up. Both Russia's and the West's pieces are circling those squares (Ukraine) waiting for the most opportune moment to advance on them. Putin won't move pieces as an attack, but as defence, because that is his position. As long as he doesn't make the first move, even though many commentators use the Crimea as the first move, and that Ukraine is just a rolled-out extension of Crimea, he can hold the moral ground with his own people.

Putin has the go-ahead (allegedly) to use troops in the Ukraine if necessary. So, if anything of Russian interest is attacked either by Ukrainians or Western-backed mercenaries, he has the political Russian sanction to invade Ukraine. Putin's problem is to keep the West out of Ukraine, he simply cannot allow the West to dictate terms, or to allow Ukraine to fall (through Western influence) into Western hands. He just simply cannot allow it.

With the events in the Ukraine the world is back to a similar but reversed positioning of the 1963 Cuba crisis. Just as Kennedy could not allow Russian nuclear ordinance to be set up on Cuba, Putin cannot allow Western influence (and by that extension nuclear and other military capability) so close to Russia's borders, and just as important, political capability. If the West continues to demonize Russia, Putin may just simply invade fully and comprehensively, and invite the West to shift him militarily, which would establish a very severe polarisation around the world. He may feel himself to act the way the West is portraying him to be.

We know the West is not going to risk nuclear war for the Ukraine, it will simply seek to isolate and demonize through advisement and consultation and presence in Western Ukraine as it has been doing so for months. Ukraine was nothing more than the means to get at Putin, and to try to dominate his political actions. He is viewed as an impediment to Western hegemonic ambitions, and thus to destabilise the Ukraine was to open up a wound into the heart of Russia...to give Putin a very large political headache.

Putin isn't being expansionist, he is being defensive. If he was being truly expansionist, he would be lining troops up all along Russia's Western borders with other countries and he would have invaded the Ukraine fully and uncompromisingly, but hasn't done either of these, but the old Soviet Union would've done so. Putin didn't annexe the Crimea until after the referendum was taken and the vote was positive for him and Russia. This was anathema to the West, and the fact that the referendum was legitimate, here in the West it was deemed irrelevant, so the West has decidedly made obfuscated overtures into the Ukraine to ensure that violence does occur, because violence shifts opinions of support, and thus will poison the coming elections in May. The West does not want to allow another Crimea-like referendum to undermine its influence in such an opportunistic region for them.

So what do you think is going to happen? Do you think Putin is going to allow the West to steam roll him into compromise over the Ukraine? I don't think he can, no matter what sanctions are placed on Russia...he simply cannot give up the Ukraine. It is my opinion that Putin and Russia wouldn't want to, but are willing to go to war for it, having more to lose, whereas the West are simply being opportunistically toxic in the Ukraine for their own ambitions, and could not give a toss for the Ukrainians.

Putin and Russia have to respond to the West's demonizing of them, whilst at the same time, flex their military muscle with small gestures. If the West is not careful, it may poke the Russian bear too successfully and get it to lash out, in a 'damned' if it does, 'damned' if it doesn't scenario. Russia is not going to give up Ukraine without a fight, politically or militarily.

If this was a Shakespearean play, it would be Othello, and the West would be Iago.

a reply to: elysiumfire

By observing the internal conditions in Russia.

What's not making the news are the protests against Putin's actions in Crimea / Ukraine. What's not making the news is the mass protests in Russia against State Media lying to the people.

Its one thing to get the people to believe in you when its based on media control. When the economy tanks because of their actions in Ukraine and the repercussions from that, no amount of state media will be able to hide Putin's involvement.

90% approval rates are common when the results are determined by the state before the poll is put to the field.


As for the constant misuse of invoking nuclear war. If your argument requires this scenario, then any other viewpoint people put forward on the stability of Russia and how great its armed forces are is rubbish. Secondly the use of nuclear weapons will result in no side winning since the US can turn Russia, equally, into a radioactive dust pile.

The after effect of nuclear detonations can cross international boundaries.

There is a reason the cold war doctrine was called MAD.

I just wish people today would educate themselves on the doctrine and how it kept the peace during the cold war.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Lol. I've learnt in my line of work you have got to laugh sometimes...even if the situation is as dire as it is in Ukraine. I wouldn't be at all surprised if I wake up tomorrow and Russia have begun their 'master plan'.

originally posted by: ProfessorT
a reply to: Xcathdra

Lol. I've learnt in my line of work you have got to laugh sometimes...even if the situation is as dire as it is in Ukraine. I wouldn't be at all surprised if I wake up tomorrow and Russia have begun their 'master plan'.

Doubtful... Dr. Evil is still out of town. The captured scientists though have been taken to Putin's secret cloud base however they are locked out until someone can find the hidden key in the surrounding clouds.

RT America ‏@RT_America · 6m
#Kerry bashes RT as "#propaganda" [VIDEO] ow.ly... @Gayane_rt

Interfax news agency said the Russian military chief in a phone conversation told his American counterpart that Ukraine had deployed a "substantial group of forces" near the Russian border, including troops whose purpose was to conduct sabotage.

Link

originally posted by: SurrenderingAmerica

Interfax news agency said the Russian military chief in a phone conversation told his American counterpart that Ukraine had deployed a "substantial group of forces" near the Russian border, including troops whose purpose was to conduct sabotage.

Link

Conduct? or present to counter the sizable Russian forces near the border that was there to further destabilize Ukraine.

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR · 2m
#Ukraine: #Russia's Gazprom issues May 7 ultimatum over gas supplies - Telegraph.co.uk... goo.gl... @BlogsofWar | EMPR News

‘Mr. Kerry, let’s talk about Fox News, BBC and Al-Jazeera bullhorns’

a reply to: SurrenderingAmerica


So there talking about the RD 180 rocket engines.The US is already looking in to a replacement. We already design other Rockets its just a matter of specs. The airforce is looking inot domestic production which really only makes sense anyway. But it shows the level of trust the US had for Russia until now. For example some of a radar components come from Britain you only do that with someone you trust.

www.space-travel.com...

a reply to: dragonridr

In a pinch the US can use the X-37B to go to and from the ISS.

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR · 2m
Crazy USSR-style tactics:4 #US English teachers kicked out of #Russia for "promoting American values" newsru.com... … @JuliaDavisNews

U.S. Dept of Defense ‏@DeptofDefense · 5m
LIVE at 9:30 p.m. ET: President Obama addresses troops at @USArmy Garrison Yongsan, Republic of Korea: go.usa.gov...

a reply to: Xcathdra


I know theirs also a two year supply in stock pile so they have two years to do something.In other words a Company is going to make money probably Boeing to design a replacement.

Earlier this week, Air Force undersecretary Eric Fanning confirmed Gass’s comments, saying there was a stockpile of RD-180 engines that would last into 2016. He added that the US was looking at ways to “ensure a varied supply of the engines,” according to Reuters, including domestic productions.

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR · 2m
As pro-#Russia separatists terrorize eastern #Ukraine, the situation in the region continues to worsen http://(link tracking not allowed)/1pzKiLb | EMPR News

I think here is what Putin is going to do:

Russian troops cross the border to stabilize the situation

West cries invasion and expansion etc. etc.

Putin tell once the situation is stabilized the troops will return back

East Ukraine holds a referendum and becomes a new country

Russia gets its buffer between NATO and itself

What about west Ukraine? Either it learns to be friendly to Russia or go the west to collect discarded crumbs from the dinner table.