Russia declares war on Ukraine. Live updates from inside Ukraine

RT ticker:3 dead including 2 right sector members.

another police building siezed by pro - Russians.

taking over of Kramatorsk police station

www.youtube.com...

'Verkhovna Rada reported that on 12 April the Ukrainian capital under a false name, visited the director of the CIA , John Brennan. In Kiev, he held several meetings with the country's leadership and the power block. Perhaps it was Brennan has initiated military action in Slovyansk transmits "Interfax ".'

www.vesti.ru...

12:14: Two women who are part of the pro-Russian crowd outside the seized police station in Sloviansk have been speaking to the BBC. One, called Irina, said: "We do not want war. We want to speak [Russian], we don't want to be forced to speak Ukrainian. We need a referendum."

Another, called Tanya, said: "I am not a separatist. We've been waiting for three months for Maidan [the opposition movement in Kiev] to calm down and everything to be resolved, but they brought us to this stage."

12:13: David Stern BBC News writes from Donetsk: More and more police stations and government buildings are falling to unidentified gunmen - who carry Russian weapons and look very much like the Kremlin forces who took Crimea. Ukraine's government appears to not have a choice whether to use force. The choice, it seems, is being made for them.
Roland Oliphant Moscow correspondent for the Daily Telegraph, tweets: Crossed into Sloviansk on foot from south side. State of siege or something like it. Back from the barricades the pro gunmen waiting under trees

12:13: Several Ukrainian news websites have picked up on what they say is an unusual use of a word by one of the pro-Russian gunmen in Sloviansk. In a video shot in Kramatorsk, a man in camouflage uses the word "porebrik," meaning a pavement's "kerb." Vitaliy Shevchenko from BBC Monitoring says it is a very uncommon term among Russian speakers in Ukraine and is more frequently used by Russians from St Petersburg.

I wonder what Putin thinks he will achieve here...other than another Chechnya.
I say, let them in, give them the police stations and political buildings, then guerrilla warfare Putin's arse until he asks for mercy.

RT

The Kiev authorities have ordered a crackdown on two more towns in the Donetsk region, Khartsyzk and Ilovaisk, anti-government activist Nikolay Soltsev told RIA Novosti. The town of Khartsyzk has 60,000 residents, while 15,000 people live in Ilovaisk.

Soloprotocol
I wonder what Putin thinks he will achieve here...other than another Chechnya.
I say, let them in, give them the police stations and political buildings, then guerrilla warfare Putin's arse until he asks for mercy.

The concern is that this will not end with Ukraine, and this is why other nations in the region are (rightly) concerned.

Putin has risked several things by taking Crimea...

1. He's lost cooperation with numerous countries in the region
2. He's wasted $50 bil on an Olympic games forgotten within 48 hours of the closing ceremony
3. He's potentially lost up to 50% of gas sales within the next ten years as European countries develop alternatives to Russian gas
4. He's lost his position on the world stage
5. He's lost an estimated $30 bil a year, the suggested figure needed to prop-up Crimea

And he supposedly did all of this to take control of a peninsula that he already had control of through peaceful means? No chance. Putin has a long game, this is not just about Crimea, and probably not just about Ukraine. Putin has been trying to build a new USSR through trade and partnership agreements with former Soviet states, and he's made it clear that he is a traditionalist who believes that the entire region is Russian.

I want to make a prediction here:

Putin will use the same tactics he used with Crimea, moving in masked men and calling them "militias" and "Russian speaking citizens" to take over government buildings. Ukraine will have no choice by to take military action against these provocations and it will result in a war between Russia and Ukraine.
The international community will of course attempt to assist Ukraine without putting any military in, but neighbors of Ukraine will be calling on NATO to defend them. It's likely something will happen in another neighbor to force NATO involvement.

Ultimately, this will result in Russia attempting to take back control of several former Soviet states, NATO will have no choice but to intervene, and we will end up in a regional war with a coalition of former Soviet states, Europe and the US fighting Russia.

Putin has not risked so much just to gain complete control of an expensive peninsula he already had under his influence.

Soloprotocol
I wonder what Putin thinks he will achieve here...other than another Chechnya.
I say, let them in, give them the police stations and political buildings, then guerrilla warfare Putin's arse until he asks for mercy.

yes, because police stations and political buildings are of little strategic importance when taking control.

guerilla warfare?

fought by whom?

same guerilla warfare that was waged in Crimea?

reply to post by Rocker2013


An outstanding analysis. One thing I would add is that Crimea's strategic significance lies in its harbor. This harbor will become useless once Turkey, a NATO member sympathetic to the Tatars, closes the Bosphorus to Russian shipping. This is why other world leaders think that Putin may have come unhinged: he has lost so much for so little.

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 1m

In #Kharkov's subway clashes took place b/w #russian& #Euromaidan activists.Injured exists.Blood all around.Subway is closed @itsector |PR

DJW001
reply to post by Rocker2013

 

An outstanding analysis. One thing I would add is that Crimea's strategic significance lies in its harbor. This harbor will become useless once Turkey, a NATO member sympathetic to the Tatars, closes the Bosphorus to Russian shipping. This is why other world leaders think that Putin may have come unhinged: he has lost so much for so little.

Indeed, although Merkel later denied that she had said that she believed he'd lost his mind, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that he actually has gone insane.

This, unfortunately, makes the entire situation even worse. If he has become incapable of rational thought, it means he cannot be predicted by analysts and he cannot be trusted to make sane decisions.

Perhaps this is why America seemed to be completely taken by surprise when Russia invaded Crimea, their analysts didn't believe he would do it based on their profiling of him and his mentality. Clearly, something has significantly changed.

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 1m

BREAKING In #Kharkiv now.Injured ppl after clashes between #Ukrainians&pro-#russians.4ambulances arrived @itsector|PR pic.twitter.com/HkEwcIk4zs

Rocker2013

DJW001
reply to post by Rocker2013

 

An outstanding analysis. One thing I would add is that Crimea's strategic significance lies in its harbor. This harbor will become useless once Turkey, a NATO member sympathetic to the Tatars, closes the Bosphorus to Russian shipping. This is why other world leaders think that Putin may have come unhinged: he has lost so much for so little.

Indeed, although Merkel later denied that she had said that she believed he'd lost his mind, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that he actually has gone insane.

This, unfortunately, makes the entire situation even worse. If he has become incapable of rational thought, it means he cannot be predicted by analysts and he cannot be trusted to make sane decisions.

Perhaps this is why America seemed to be completely taken by surprise when Russia invaded Crimea, their analysts didn't believe he would do it based on their profiling of him and his mentality. Clearly, something has significantly changed.

do you (along with few other individuals here) really believe all that you just said?

do you really believe that Putin/Russia is losing here?

do you really believe Putin's decisions are not sane?

Euromaidan PR @EuromaidanPR BREAKING Storm of the House of Pioneers in #Kharkiv has started by pro-#russians activists right now - @itsector | PR News #Ukraine 7 mins ago 19 retweets | 1 replies

Sloviansk - Inside the Barricades

demus

Soloprotocol
I wonder what Putin thinks he will achieve here...other than another Chechnya.
I say, let them in, give them the police stations and political buildings, then guerrilla warfare Putin's arse until he asks for mercy.

yes, because police stations and political buildings are of little strategic importance when taking control.

guerilla warfare?

fought by whom?

same guerilla warfare that was waged in Crimea?

The capture of police stations / government buildings has nothing to do with being strategic. It has more to do with psychological in addition to creating / supporting the narrative they will present to the world to justify there actions.

Taking the police stations revolves around weapons left behind. Most likely communication equipment. Not to mention records that may be stored at the station. Being a former SSR I would wager they have extensive files on people / politicians / who they are investigating and why / etc.

The secondary effect is the psychological. It is sending a message that -
A - The central government is ineffective, placing all Ukrainians in danger.
B - It sends a message that even local Ukrainian forces are inept, placing all Ukrainians in danger.
C - It removes a good chunk of national pride and removes a rallying point for any "uprising / pro Ukraine response"
D - It forces pro Ukrainians to keep out of the way / off the streets.
E - Any issues Ukrainians encounter with regards to pro Russia / Russian forces leaves no avenue to report it.
F - It can be portrayed in such a manner that countries who initially sided with Ukraine may have picked the losing side.
G - The instability results in reduced international support.
H - Any records located could possible be used against others - IE changing the names of suspects / people under investigation to portray the Ukrainian government as being paranoid of her own people.

The Government buildings -
A - The central government is ineffective, placing all Ukrainians in danger.
B - It sends a message that even local Ukrainian forces are inept, placing all Ukrainians in danger.
C - It removes a good chunk of national pride and removes a rallying point for any "uprising / pro Ukraine response"
D - It forces pro Ukrainians to keep out of the way / off the streets.
E - Any issues Ukrainians encounter with regards to pro Russia / Russian forces leaves no avenue to report it.
F - It can be portrayed in such a manner that countries who initially sided with Ukraine may have picked the losing side.
G - The instability results in reduced international support.
H - Any records located could possible be used against others - IE changing the names of suspects / people under investigation to portray the Ukrainian government as being paranoid of her own people.

Any place can be used as a temporary government building / police department. When you take all the above together, it can create a ball of issues which then get pushed over the edge, creating a snowball effect. So much so that by the time the ball stops rolling it would be close to impossible to retrace the path the ball took.

By that time, occupation is present and there is no real way to "investigate" the entire mountain the snowball came down.

This is one of those military plans where you don't win the war by occupying the land. Every action Russia is taking allows them to deny their involvement all around. The only way to refute that claim would be for the west to start releasing their intelligence information. While it may convince people that Russia is involved and the aggressor, it also tips the allies hand of what capabilities they have, what areas they are targeted in and could possibly pinpoint human sources of intelligence.

That would allow Russian counter-intelligence to start dropping fake info to see if it ends up in the West's hands. That not only identifies the source, but allows Russia to possibly exploit that situation in their favor.

One other thing that has been nagging me is Snowden. I know his issue was last year but I find myself wondering if Snowden has turned items over to Russia, allowing them to get into our files to see what's going on.

The wild card is going to be Turkey. While they are a member of NATO, they also have the Tartars and I cant see Turkey remaining silent should Tartars become targeted in Crimea / Ukraine / Russia. Turkey has pointed this out to Puint, justifying their position as protecting tartars.

My 2 cents of some possibilities.

reply to post by Xcathdra


you wrote so much yet said nothing.

police stations and government buildings are symbols and means of rule, government.

that is why such targets are primary when taking over a control.

how would you assume control over a city/territory if you left police stations, other strategically important buildings under control of enemy?

all the points you discussed are secondary.

Xcathdra
reply to post by ufoorbhunter

 

Then Russia should have no problems returning Kaliningrad, being it was owned by Germany until the end of WWII.

Secondly re-read your history because last I checked the allies held a large chunk of Germany. Had it not been for the west you are correct, there would be no Germany, or Eastern Europe for that matter since they were occupied by Soviet Union / Russia.

What? You believe that Kaliningrad should be returned after what the Germans did to the USSR. They destroyed the country, in some ways it still hasn't recovered, they murdered 29 million people. There's no way you can compensate for the 29 million with land, but I seriously doubt Russians see it as you do.

demus

do you (along with few other individuals here) really believe all that you just said?

Yes, otherwise I would not have written it.

demus
do you really believe that Putin/Russia is losing here?

Lets see, shall we?
Putin wasted $50 bil on the winter games to take control of a peninsula he already had influence over.
He lost support of all former Soviet nations surrounding Russia, countries the Kremlin had spent more than 5 years wooing for trade ties to form another friendlier Soviet state.
He's risked the collapse of the Russian economy.
He's lost diplomatic ties with almost the entire planet, except maybe China.
What has he won? He's gained complete control of a peninsula he already had.

demus
do you really believe Putin's decisions are not sane?

Given all the evidence and his actions, the things he has risked and the things he could potentially gain, yes I believe he has lost his mind and that he is completely insane.

Look, even if he somehow manages to seize control of just E Ukraine, he's lost already. Russia will be rejected from deals with all other nations, there will be an ongoing and expensive internal conflict, sanctions against Russia will increase, gas exports to Europe will decline steadily over the next ten years, NATO build up in former Soviet states will skyrocket making Russia LESS secure... I could go on.

He did all of this for nothing more than increasing the physical size of Russian empire. The trade off is not remotely sane no matter how you look at it.

So, ergo, Putin is a dribbling idiot who should probably be ousted by his own government for being mentally unsound, if they know what's good for them and their country.