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right now I believe there will be armed resistance to any Russian move that usurps the power of the Kiev government,
reply to post by Oksus
To continue the chess analogy, what it reminds me of is the situation where someone has your queen and your rook forked with their knight so that you can only save one or the other.
1. If the Budapest Memorandum is interpreted to mean that the US and Britain must defend the Ukraine against a Russian military incursion, it potentially leads directly to WWIII.
2. If the US and Britain say the Budapest Memorandum doesn't require defending the Ukraine and they do essentially nothing, then other countries have no reason to believe that they can rely on the US or Britain to fulfill mutual defense treaties and likely NATO's role in the world will be marginalized as well.
My guess is the second possibility is most likely and is likely what Putin expects as well. But I'm pretty sure Putin must have considered the other possibility as well.
So after so many pages, should I start stocking up canned food or not?
Or is it yet another "We're doomed WWIII is here!!! oh wait, no it's not.." thing?
I am lazy.
Well China is involved in this as well they signed a nuclear defense pact with Ukraine i know Putin knows this so im waiting for China to weigh in on this as well. China is obliged under this to help protect Ukraine from aggression by nuclear powers. Believe it or not Ukraine is very important to the chinese. China and Ukraine have a long history of strategic partnerships. Ukraine's military industrial enterprises, which inherited the former Soviet Union's estate, have cooperated with China. The Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier commissioned into the People's Liberation Army Navy, was originally laid down as the Admiral Kuznetsov class multirole aircraft carrier Riga for the Soviet Navy built in Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine's military industrial enterprises have also played a key role in the engine production and maintenance of China's military jets, transport aircrafts and helicopters.
reply to post by Oksus
Well China is involved in this as well they signed a nuclear defense pact with Ukraine i know Putin knows this so im waiting for China to weigh in on this as well. China is obliged under this to help protect Ukraine from aggression by nuclear powers.
reply to post by tsurfer2000h
Looks as though Russia has decided to overlook some of these and do as they please.
Not unlike what made a little island in the Caribbean important to have in a history book. Recall the reasons for the US invasion of Grenada? That wasn't even a US Naval base at stake. Sevastopol is a key strategic Russian naval port and facility they could first be called paranoid or using excuses to react to threat with. Then, Kiev outright said they'd rethink the existing treaty and perhaps evict them.
The Russian forces appeared to be establishing "legitimate" defensive positions around some of Moscow's military bases in a "self-defense posture only," U.S. officials told NBC News on Saturday.
But just because Putin was granted new powers to use military force doesn't mean he will do so any time soon, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said.In what might have been an attempt to put a velvet glove on an iron fist, Karasin said Putin's power may not be activated quickly.